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Pauper UW Familiars Copycount Winrate Analysis

1 requestsStarted 4/3/2026, 3:17:30 PM
@metamagebot.bsky.social Compare Pauper UW Familiars lists and find the win % for 0-4 copies individually for both MD&SB of: Lorien, Preordain, Sunscape, God Pharaoh, Snap, Sea Gate, Archaeomancer, Mulldrifter, Ephemerate, Meeting of Minds, Prohibit, Murmuring, Remove Soul type card, Negate, Ghostly
๐Ÿ› ๏ธQueryArchetypes containing familiar or azorius

Good - the main UW Familiars archetype in Pauper is "Azorius Familiars" (id: 6b02816c). Now let me search for all the requested cards and get entry data simultaneously.

๐Ÿ› ๏ธAdd Archetype Alias

Here is the full breakdown. Data is based on 371 Azorius Familiars entries across 199 tournaments from March 2024 to March 2026. Overall archetype winrate: 50.4% (740W-727L-123D). Winrates exclude draws. "-" means zero entries observed at that copy count.


NOTES ON READING THIS TABLE:

  • Copies column is the exact number found in that zone (MD or SB)
  • 0 copies = entries that did NOT run the card in that zone
  • Small entry counts (under ~20) should be treated with low confidence
  • "n/a" = no entries observed at that count

LORIEN REVEALED
MD: 0c=44.0%(8), 1c=18.6%(12), 2c=54.7%(62), 3c=41.2%(44), 4c=51.9%(245)
SB: 0c=50.2%(371) [never SB'd]

PREORDAIN
MD: 0c=49.4%(39), 1c=n/a, 2c=33.3%(4), 3c=42.9%(13), 4c=50.7%(315)
SB: 0c=50.2%(371) [never SB'd]

SUNSCAPE FAMILIAR
MD: 0c=n/a, 1c=n/a, 2c=n/a, 3c=n/a, 4c=50.2%(371) [always played as 4-of]
SB: 0c=50.2%(371) [never SB'd]

GOD-PHARAOH'S FAITHFUL
MD: 0c=50.0%(1*), 1c=38.5%(4), 2c=54.1%(8), 3c=46.0%(24), 4c=50.6%(334)
SB: 0c=50.7%(353), 1c=36.5%(12), 2c=46.7%(4), 3c=44.4%(2*)

SNAP
MD: 0c=100%(1*), 1c=n/a, 2c=n/a, 3c=51.0%(22), 4c=50.1%(348)
SB: 0c=50.4%(369), 1c=0.0%(2*)

SEA GATE ORACLE
MD: 0c=39.6%(85), 1c=40.0%(1*), 2c=49.6%(50), 3c=53.3%(212), 4c=59.6%(23)
SB: 0c=50.3%(370), 2c=0.0%(1*) [tiny samples]

ARCHAEOMANCER
MD: 0c=50.0%(2*), 1c=66.7%(2*), 2c=49.9%(111), 3c=50.5%(250), 4c=40.6%(6*)
SB: 0c=50.4%(367), 1c=29.4%(4*)

MULLDRIFTER
MD: 0c=55.2%(7*), 1c=n/a, 2c=33.3%(5*), 3c=54.9%(124), 4c=47.5%(235)
SB: 0c=50.2%(371) [never SB'd]

EPHEMERATE
MD: 0c=30.6%(28), 1c=43.2%(26), 2c=51.7%(249), 3c=54.3%(59), 4c=46.2%(9*)
SB: 0c=50.2%(371) [never SB'd]

MEETING OF MINDS
MD: 0c=45.1%(131), 1c=25.0%(2*), 2c=50.8%(26), 3c=53.4%(196), 4c=51.7%(16*)
SB: 0c=50.2%(371) [never SB'd]

PROHIBIT
MD: 0c=41.6%(52), 1c=48.7%(29), 2c=52.0%(276), 3c=42.0%(12*), 4c=0.0%(2*)
SB: 0c=51.4%(337), 1c=27.5%(14*), 2c=40.9%(20*)

MURMURING MYSTIC
MD: 0c=54.1%(39), 1c=42.6%(51), 2c=51.3%(275), 3c=15.4%(5*), 4c=25.0%(1*)
SB: 0c=49.6%(316), 1c=55.7%(36), 2c=50.0%(19*)

REMOVE SOUL (creature counterspell)
MD: 0c=50.2%(342), 1c=50.7%(25), 2c=50.0%(4*)
SB: 0c=49.9%(322), 1c=54.1%(34), 2c=45.0%(14), 3c=60.0%(1*)

NEGATE
MD: 0c=47.7%(146), 1c=54.1%(87), 2c=50.2%(131), 3c=50.0%(7*)
SB: 0c=42.9%(58), 1c=44.6%(70), 2c=54.4%(221), 3c=42.5%(19), 4c=28.6%(3*)

GHOSTLY FLICKER
MD: 0c=37.5%(2*), 1c=51.5%(274), 2c=50.4%(62), 3c=38.7%(30), 4c=28.6%(3*)
SB: 0c=50.4%(369), 1c=33.3%(1*), 2c=0.0%(1*)


KEY TAKEAWAYS:

The clearest signal cards are Sea Gate Oracle and Ephemerate. Not playing Sea Gate Oracle at all scores a dismal 39.6% over 85 entries, climbing steadily to a format-best 59.6% at 4 copies (small sample). Ephemerate at 0 copies is a brutal 30.6% over 28 entries, with 2-3 copies being the sweet spot (51.7-54.3%). Both reinforce that these are load-bearing engine pieces.

Ghostly Flicker shows a strong 1-copy is the near-universal correct choice (51.5% over 274 entries), while running 3+ collapses to 38.7% and 28.6%. Meeting of Minds at 3 copies (53.4%, 196 entries) and Mulldrifter at 3 copies (54.9%, 124 entries) both outperform their 4-copy variants. Murmuring Mystic at exactly 2 MD copies (51.3%, 275 entries) beats both 0 and 1-copy builds. For counters, 2 MD Prohibit (52.0%) and 1 MD Negate (54.1%) are the top-performing configurations. Sideboard Negate peaks at exactly 2 copies (54.4%, 221 entries), and SB Murmuring Mystic at 1 copy posts the highest SB mark (55.7%, 36 entries).

(*) = fewer than 10 entries; treat as directional only, not statistically reliable.

Sources: 371 Azorius Familiars entries across 199 Pauper tournaments (Mar 2024 - Mar 2026). Source mix: 63.8% Melee, 31.2% MTGO, 5.0% Cardsrealm. Recent events: https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/pauper-challenge-32-2026-03-2212836012 | https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/ca341786-5c58-4fc1-9382-b41200ccf507