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Modern Affinity Winrate Configuration Analysis

1 requestsStarted 10/8/2025, 10:23:26 AM
of the modern affinity lists in the past two weeks, compare winrates of lists w/wo weapons manufacturing, w/wo emry in the main deck, and with both/with neither

I'll analyze Modern Affinity lists from the past two weeks to compare winrates based on Weapons Manufacturing and Emry, Lurker of the Loch inclusion. Let me gather this data step by step.

Now let me query for Affinity lists in the past two weeks and analyze their performance with/without these cards:

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Composition Impact on Performance

Let me also get a summary of the overall breakdown:

🛠️QueryAffinity Card Performance in September 2025 Tournaments

Now let me get tournament sources for citations:

Modern Affinity Card Analysis (Past Two Weeks)

Based on 99 Affinity entries from Sep 15-29, 2025, here's the winrate comparison:

Individual Card Performance:

• Weapons Manufacturing: 56.9% winrate (26 entries) vs 51.5% without (73 entries) - +5.4% advantage
• Emry (Main): 48.8% winrate (37 entries) vs 55.4% without (62 entries) - -6.6% disadvantage

Combined Analysis:

• Neither card: 53.9% winrate (37 entries) - Best performing configuration
• Weapons Manufacturing only: 57.4% winrate (25 entries) - Highest winrate
• Emry only: 49.1% winrate (36 entries) - Below average
• Both cards: 0.0% winrate (1 entry) - Insufficient data

Key Insights:

  • Weapons Manufacturing appears beneficial for Affinity performance (+5.4% winrate boost)
  • Emry in the main deck correlates with lower winrates (-6.6% compared to without)
  • The optimal configuration seems to be Weapons Manufacturing without main deck Emry (57.4% winrate)
  • Only 26% of lists run Weapons Manufacturing, suggesting potential room for adoption
  • 37% of lists run main deck Emry, but this correlates with worse performance

The data suggests Weapons Manufacturing is an underexplored but potentially powerful inclusion, while main deck Emry may be hindering Affinity's win percentage.

Sources:

Data from 25 tournaments: 84% MTGO, 16% Melee. Recent examples: 2nd Chance PTQ, https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2025-09-2812816547, https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2025-09-2812816543