I'll analyze the win rate difference for Izzet Elementals based on the number of Deceit in the deck.
Now let me query the database to compare win rates for Izzet Elementals decks with 3 or more Deceit versus those with fewer than 3.
Let me also get some tournament sources for this analysis:
Based on the tournament data, Izzet Elementals decks running fewer than 3 copies of Deceit significantly outperform those running 3 or more copies. Decks with less than 3 Deceit achieved a 65.3% win rate across 27 entries, while decks with 3 or more Deceit only posted a 58.3% win rate across 13 entries. That's a 7 percentage point advantage for the lower Deceit counts.
This suggests that while Deceit provides flexibility as a removal or discard option, running it as a 3-4 of may dilute the deck's core gameplan. The better-performing builds appear to prioritize other threats and interaction, possibly treating Deceit as a 1-2 of role player or omitting it entirely in favor of more consistent threats like Sunderflock and Burst Lightning.
Sources: Data from 10 Standard tournaments between December 2025 and February 2026 (50% MTGO, 50% Melee). Recent examples include:
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/standard-challenge-32-2026-02-0112831753
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/standard-rc-super-qualifier-2026-02-0112831692
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/5c8d97c6-55d0-41dc-a1df-b3e300b9bcda