I'll analyze the conversion rate of archetypes from top 32 to top 8 in Modern over the last 60 days. Let me gather the necessary data.
Now let me get some additional context about the tournament sample size and recent sources:
Based on analysis of 99 Modern tournaments with 32+ players over the last 60 days (July 24 - September 22, 2025), here are the top 32 to top 8 conversion rates by archetype:
The highest conversion rates belong to niche archetypes with small sample sizes: Mardu Blink and Jeskai Cutter both achieved 50% conversion rates, though with only 16 and 6 top 32 appearances respectively. Among more established archetypes, Neobrand leads with a 33.7% conversion rate from 86 top 32 finishes, followed by Ruby Storm at 31.8% and Grixis Reanimator at 31.4%.
The tier 1 decks show more moderate conversion rates: Boros Energy, despite being the most popular archetype with 444 top 32 appearances and 15.8% of all top 8 slots, converts at 25.9%. Tron and Esper Blink both hover around 27.8-27.9% conversion rates. Notably, several established archetypes like Yawgmoth, Lantern Control, and Dimir Reanimator failed to convert any of their top 32 appearances into top 8 finishes during this period.
The data suggests combo decks and linear strategies tend to have higher conversion rates when they reach the elimination rounds, likely due to their ability to steal games and having fewer bad matchups in concentrated fields. Fair midrange and control strategies show more consistent but lower conversion rates, reflecting the variance inherent in interactive gameplay.
Sources: Data from 99 tournaments with 32+ players: 82.9% MTGO, 17.1% Melee. Recent events include Modern Challenge tournaments and store championships.
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2025-09-2112815144
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-64-2025-09-2012815138
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/6f7d76be-4803-4385-95da-b35f00a1a64e