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Standard Meta Rock-Paper-Scissors Dynamic

1 requestsStarted 2/3/2026, 4:23:19 PM
the current standard format, let's say looking at results only from the past 2 weeks, feels like a rock paper scissors format. One deck puts another deck in check, but if that deck becomes prevalent, it gives way for other decks to thrive. Looking at play rates and win rates for the top standard decks right now, how would you assess the current rock paper scissors nature of the format

I'll analyze the current Standard format's rock-paper-scissors dynamics by looking at the top decks' play rates and win rates over the past 2 weeks, then examining key matchups.

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Now let me examine the key matchups between the top decks to identify the rock-paper-scissors dynamics:

Assessment: Standard IS Rock-Paper-Scissors, But With a Twist

You're absolutely right—the data confirms Standard has clear predator-prey dynamics, but it's more nuanced than a simple triangle:

Meta Composition (Past 2 Weeks):
• Simic Cub - 13.5% presence, 49.8% WR
• Izzet Lessons - 12.9% presence, 49.7% WR
• Reanimator - 11.4% presence, 49.2% WR
• Jeskai Control - 8.1% presence, 50.0% WR
• Bant Airbending Combo - 6.1% presence, 55.3% WR ⚠️
• Landfall - 5.3% presence, 57.4% WR ⚠️

The Rock-Paper-Scissors Cycles:

Cycle 1 - The Big Three:
• Reanimator beats Izzet (56.4% WR)
• Simic Cub beats Reanimator (53.6% WR)
• Simic Cub slightly edges Izzet (51.6% WR)

This creates a soft triangle where no deck dominates, explaining why all three hover around 50% overall winrate despite high play rates.

The Predators:
Two lower-presence decks are exploiting this balance:
• Landfall crushes Jeskai Control (70.4% WR!) and has favorable Reanimator matchups
• Bant Airbending beats Simic Cub (54% WR) and goes even with Izzet

Why It's Self-Correcting:
The format shows classic predator-prey dynamics. Landfall and Bant Airbending have excellent win rates (57.4% and 55.3%) but lower play rates (5-6%). As players catch on and these decks increase in numbers, the meta will shift—people will adjust sideboards or play decks that prey on them, bringing everything back to equilibrium.

Bottom Line: This is a healthy rock-paper-scissors format. No deck is oppressively dominant, and skilled pilots with good meta reads can succeed with multiple strategies. The decks with the best win rates have the lowest play rates, suggesting room for metagaming.

Sources:
Data from 45 tournaments (67% Melee, 33% MTGO). Recent events: Standard Challenge 32, Premier Summer Series, Standard RC Super Qualifier