Now I have the top archetypes. Let me fetch all the matchup winrates for Boros Ponza vs each of them in parallel.
Here is the full Boros Ponza matchup winrate matrix versus the Modern field over the last 60 days (mirror excluded, draws excluded from winrate calculation):
FAVORABLE MATCHUPS
vs Tron: 80.0% (36-9, 46 matches) -- dominant, land destruction at its best
vs Domain Zoo: 78.6% (11-3, 14 matches) -- small sample but lopsided
vs Grixis Reanimator: 68.6% (24-11, 35 matches)
vs Esper Blink: 68.8% (11-5, 16 matches)
vs Yawgmoth: 66.7% (6-3, 9 matches) -- small sample
vs Living End: 62.5% (10-6, 16 matches)
vs Prowess: 63.6% (21-12, 33 matches) -- notably strong against red aggro
ROUGHLY EVEN
vs Broodscale: 51.3% (20-19, 39 matches)
vs Affinity: 53.1% (34-30, 64 matches)
vs Blue Belcher: 53.8% (7-6, 13 matches) -- small sample
UNFAVORABLE MATCHUPS
vs Ruby Storm: 43.3% (13-17, 30 matches)
vs Neobrand: 41.7% (5-7, 12 matches) -- small sample
vs Azorius Blink: 40.0% (4-6, 10 matches) -- small sample
vs Boros Energy: 39.1% (27-42, 69 matches) -- notable dog to the mirror-adjacent top dog
vs Goryo Reanimator: 38.9% (21-33, 54 matches)
VERY UNFAVORABLE
vs Amulet Titan: 33.3% (11-22, 33 matches)
vs Ramp Eldrazi: 25.0% (2-6, 8 matches) -- small sample
vs Azorius Control: 23.9% (11-35, 46 matches) -- the worst matchup by far
vs Fight Rigging Eldrazi: 16.7% (1-5, 6 matches) -- very small sample
The big picture: Boros Ponza's overall winrate sits at 48.9%, and the matchup matrix explains why. It preys excellently on Tron (the land-destruction plan is punishing) and handles both Reanimator variants and Prowess well. Its fatal weakness is Azorius Control (23.9% across 46 matches -- a large, reliable sample), and it struggles badly against the two most-played archetypes in the format: Boros Energy (39.1%) and Goryo Reanimator (38.9%). Amulet Titan is also a rough matchup at 33.3%. In a meta where those three archetypes combine for over 26% of total field presence, Ponza is consistently rowing upstream.
Note: matchups with fewer than ~15 decisive matches (Yawgmoth, Ramp Eldrazi, Fight Rigging Eldrazi, Azorius Blink, Blue Belcher, Neobrand) should be treated as directional only.
Sources: Data from 98 Modern tournaments (May 28 -- Jul 28, 2026), 73.5% MTGO / 26.5% Melee.
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-64-2026-07-2612848217
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/645c1234-0fd4-4678-88cb-b492016441f7
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-64-2026-07-2512848206