Good, I have the card IDs and the archetype ID. Now let me search for the "crab" reference - likely Hedron Crab or similar - and also query win rates split by each of these key cards.
I don't see Colorstorm Stallion or Elusive Otter in the current Prowess mainboard list. The Stallion is a brand-new card (released 2026-04-24). Let me check if these cards appear at all and search for "crab" context - perhaps it's a different archetype or these are being tested. Let me also check for Colorstorm Stallion and Elusive Otter in the broader Modern context, and look for a possible "crab" card.
Colorstorm Stallion has zero entries in the database - it was just released 2026-04-24 so there's virtually no tournament data yet. Elusive Otter only shows 7 Prowess decks total. The "crab" reference with high deck counts is clearly Hedron Crab/Ruin Crab - likely a Mill archetype. Let me check if @dcamtg is asking about a Mill deck context or a different archetype, and also get win rate splits for the cards that DO have data.
The CASE WHEN with special characters caused an issue. Let me rewrite the queries:
Interesting - looks like the Slickshot query captured almost all entries. The "without Slickshot" is only 7 entries. Let me now check the overall Prowess winrate, get data on Elusive Otter in a broader window, and query by crab count for the Mill archetype:
The Mill data appears to be the same 76 entries with both 4 Hedron Crabs and 4 Ruin Crabs - this is the standard 8-crab configuration. Let me check combined crab counts and get total Mill entry counts, plus look for Colorstorm Stallion in the broader DB post-release.
Colorstorm Stallion has only appeared in 5 tournaments post-release (April 24-26). Let me get full stats on those entries and what archetype they're in:
Now I have a comprehensive picture. Let me compile the full answer for @dcamtg:
Hey @dcamtg, great questions! Here's what the data shows across Modern (March 1 - April 28, 2026):
Prowess: Slickshot vs. Elusive Otter vs. Colorstorm Stallion
Slickshot Show-Off is the overwhelming consensus pick. It appears in 158 of 165 Prowess entries (95.8% presence) at nearly 4 copies per deck, and those 158 decks post a 49.6% winrate. The 7 Slickshot-free Prowess builds run 57.6% -- but that tiny sample (7 entries) isn't reliable. Elusive Otter sees essentially zero play in Prowess -- 0 entries in this 2-month window at the right copy count. It does appear in some fringe Prowess lists over a longer lookback but with no statistically meaningful data.
Colorstorm Stallion (released April 24) is just now hitting the tournament scene. Across 5 events in its first 3 days, it's showing up mostly in Izzet Spellementals (9 entries, 67.6% combined WR across 1-3 copy configurations) and Izzet Midrange (9 entries, 71.4% WR at 4 copies). Only 4 Prowess-adjacent entries run it so far. The early numbers are encouraging but the sample is far too small to draw conclusions -- check back in 2-3 weeks once SOS settles in.
Crab Count Win Rates (Modern Mill)
This one is actually very straightforward: 100% of Mill entries in the database run exactly 4 Hedron Crab + 4 Ruin Crab (the full 8-crab package). There is no meaningful variation in crab count to split on -- no player is running 6 or fewer crabs. The 8-crab Mill configuration posts a 40.4% winrate (110W/162L) across 76 entries since January 2026, which tracks with Mill's known position as a fringe archetype.
On per-card winrate splits in general: Yes, this methodology works well -- you can split "entries that played card X vs. not" and compare W/L/D. The Slickshot example above is a clean demonstration. The main caveats are sample size (you need at least ~30 entries per group to trust the numbers) and correlation vs. causation (better players may gravitate toward certain builds). Colorstorm Stallion will be worth revisiting once it has 50+ entries.
Sources: Data from 87 Modern tournaments (81.6% MTGO, 18.4% Melee). Recent events:
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2026-04-2612840566
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2026-04-2612840562
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2026-04-2512840556