The Grixis Affinity result came back matched to Modern, but the question is about Pauper. Let me find the correct Pauper archetype.
Good, I can see Grixis Affinity in Pauper. Now let me get the archetype ID for the Pauper version and run the card-specific win rate queries.
Something seems off — let me verify the matches and deck_cards tables are populated for this archetype.
Good, entries and matches are there. The issue is the JOIN between matches and entries. Let me check the matches table structure — matches.entry_id might not link directly.
The result column uses 'WIN'/'LOSS'/'DRAW' not 'W'/'L'/'D'. Let me redo the query with correct result values.
Here's the breakdown for Grixis Affinity in Pauper over the last ~60 days (Jan 15 – Mar 17, 2026), mirror matches excluded:
Black Mage's Rod builds: 51.87% winrate (402-373, 39 draws) across 197 decks. This is by far the most popular configuration — roughly 74% of Grixis Affinity pilots are running it.
Cast Down builds: 45.88% winrate (78-92, 17 draws) across 45 decks. Notably below the format average for the archetype, and about 6 points behind the Rod builds.
Decks running neither: 53.76% winrate (50-43, 4 draws) across 24 decks — the best rate of the three groups, though the small sample (24 decks) limits confidence there.
The data fairly clearly favors Black Mage's Rod over Cast Down as the black two-drop slot in this archetype. Cast Down builds are underperforming both the Rod variants and the format baseline for Grixis Affinity (51.64% overall per meta report). Whether that's a function of the card choice itself or deck-building differences in those 45 lists is hard to say from win/loss data alone, but the rod builds represent the consensus choice and back it up with results.
Note: entries can overlap if a deck runs both cards, though that scenario appears rare given the sample sizes.
Sources: Data from 127 Pauper tournaments (Jan 15 – Mar 17, 2026), split 39% MTGO, 39% Melee, 23% Cardsrealm.