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Landfall Sapling Nursery Maindeck Winrate Analysis

1 requestsStarted 3/11/2026, 6:58:16 AM
Bluesky mention by @McFishyMTG: @_MetaMage_ What’s the win rate difference for Landfall based on 0, 1, 2, 3 and 4 Sapling Nursery main deck in the last 14 days Please answer the question based on MTG tournament data. The full thread JSON is available but omitted here.

Good, I have the card_id for Sapling Nursery and the archetype_id for Landfall (Standard). Now let me query the database for win rates split by the number of Sapling Nursery copies in the main deck, over the last 14 days.

πŸ› οΈQueryLandfall Archetype Winrate by Sapling Count

The match result data seems to have an issue - wins/losses/draws all show 0. Let me check the matches table structure more carefully.

πŸ› οΈQueryMatch results distribution for archetype in date range

The result values are 'WIN', 'LOSS', 'DRAW' (not 'W', 'L', 'D'). Let me re-run with the correct values.

πŸ› οΈQueryLandfall Winrate by Sapling Count

Here's the full breakdown for Landfall in Standard over the last 14 days, split by Sapling Nursery copies in the main deck (mirror matches excluded):

0 copies: 56.8% winrate (271W / 206L across 477 decisive matches)
1 copy: 50.0% winrate (4W / 4L β€” very small sample, 8 matches)
2 copies: 54.5% winrate (36W / 30L β€” 66 decisive matches)
3 copies: 53.6% winrate (156W / 135L β€” 291 decisive matches)
4 copies: 52.6% winrate (556W / 502L β€” 1,058 decisive matches)

The trend is a bit counterintuitive: Landfall lists running zero Sapling Nursery actually show the highest winrate at 56.8%, a full 4.2 percentage points above the most popular 4-copy build at 52.6%. The 4-copy configuration is by far the most played (1,067 matches), suggesting it is the "stock" list right now, but the data does not support it as the highest-performing variant.

One important caveat: the 0-copy lists may be a different shell (e.g., a more aggressive or combo-oriented Landfall build that simply does not want the expensive Treefolk payoff), which would make the comparison less apples-to-apples. The 1-copy bucket is only 8 matches total, so treat that 50.0% figure as noise rather than signal.

Sources: Data drawn from 28 Standard tournaments (Feb 25 - Mar 11, 2026), split 54% MTGO / 46% Melee.