I'll analyze top 32 to top 8 conversion rates in Modern over the last 60 days, looking at both MTGO and Melee results.
Now let me get more specific data about the top 32 to top 8 conversion by querying the database directly to analyze conversion rates by archetype and source:
Let me also get the overall conversion statistics and source breakdown:
Based on the analysis of Modern tournaments over the last 60 days (July 24 - September 22, 2025), here are the key findings for top 32 to top 8 conversion rates:
The overall conversion rate from top 32 to top 8 is exactly 25.0% across all archetypes, which makes mathematical sense given that 8 out of 32 positions convert. However, specific archetypes show significant variance in their ability to close out tournaments. The highest-performing archetypes include Jeskai Cutter (60.0% conversion from 5 entries), Mardu Blink (53.3% from 15 entries), and Simic Ritual (41.7% from 24 entries).
Among the tier 1 decks with substantial sample sizes, Ruby Storm leads with 34.3% conversion (35 top 8s from 102 top 32 finishes), followed by Neobrand at 32.9% and Grixis Reanimator at 31.8%. The format's most popular deck, Boros Energy, converts at exactly the expected rate of 25.1% despite its dominance in raw numbers (103 top 8 appearances from 411 top 32 finishes). Notably, combo and reanimator strategies appear to have higher conversion rates than fair midrange and control decks.
The data comes exclusively from MTGO tournaments during this period, with no qualifying Melee events meeting the 32+ player threshold. This represents analysis of 2,728 top 32 entries across 92 MTGO tournaments, providing a robust sample for statistical analysis.
Sources:
Data from 111 tournaments: 82.9% MTGO, 17.1% Melee
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/6f7d76be-4803-4385-95da-b35f00a1a64e
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2025-09-2112815144
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-64-2025-09-2012815138