← Back to Sessions

Affinity Maindeck Configuration Performance Comparison

1 requestsStarted 10/21/2025, 10:17:04 PM
for the last 4 weeks, which version of affinity had a better winrate : (1) affinity with metalic rebuke and weapons manufacturing maindeck, (2) affinity with metalic rebuke main deck but no weapons manufacturing maindeck, (3) affinity with weapons manufacturing maindeck but no metalic rebuke maindeck, (4) affinity with no weapons manufacturing nor metalic rebuke maindeck. Win confidence interval and winrate per MU for each. Short answer

I'll analyze the different Affinity configurations over the last 4 weeks. Let me start by getting the card IDs and Affinity archetype info.

Let me search for "Weaponize the Monsters" more directly and query the database for the performance splits:

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Configurations Winrate Analysis

Let me search for the correct card name and check what's in the database:

🛠️QueryWeapons Weapons Manufacturing Card in Archetype Deck

Perfect! Now let me rerun the analysis with the correct card ID:

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Configurations and Performance Metrics

Now let me get matchup data for the top two configurations (Both MB and Rebuke only):

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Configuration Performance by Matchup

Let me adjust the query to check matchup data properly:

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Configuration Performance Against Archetypes

Let me check if match data exists for Affinity entries:

🛠️QueryMatches for Specific Archetype Last 28 Days

Good, match data exists. Let me fix the matchup query:

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Configuration Performance by Matchup

Let me lower the threshold and check what matchups we have:

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Configuration Win Rates by Opponent

Let me check if there's an issue with the match data structure:

🛠️QueryArchetype Match Results Past 28 Days

I see - results are "WIN", "LOSS", "DRAW" not 'W', 'L', 'D'. Let me fix the matchup query:

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Performance with Metallic Rebuke Variations

Perfect! Now let me calculate confidence intervals for the overall winrates. For a 95% confidence interval with binomial proportion, I'll use Wilson score interval:

🛠️QueryMetallic Rebuke and Weaponize Impact Analysis

The Wilson score confidence interval calculation isn't working correctly in SQLite. Let me use a simpler approach with standard error:

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Configurations Win Rate Comparison

Perfect! Now I have all the data needed. Let me format a concise answer:

Affinity Configuration Analysis (Last 4 Weeks)

Overall Winrates (95% CI):

  1. Both MB (Rebuke + Manufacturing): 55.0% ± 4.8% (90 entries, 225-184-25)
  2. Rebuke only: 50.7% ± 5.1% (83 entries, 185-180-25)
  3. Manufacturing only: 38.5% ± 26.4% (3 entries, 5-8-1) insufficient data
  4. Neither: 49.5% ± 9.6% (26 entries, 52-53-4)

Winner: Configuration #1 (Both MB) by ~4.3%

Key Matchup Performance (≥5 matches):

Both MB advantages:

  • Goryo Reanimator: 67.4% (29-14)
  • Blue Belcher: 78.9% (15-4)
  • Azorius Control: 65.2% (15-8)
  • Neobrand: 61.5% (8-5)

Rebuke only advantages:

  • Prowess: 80.0% (8-2)
  • Domain Zoo: 54.8% (17-14)
  • Boros Energy: 48.0% (24-26)

Both MB struggles:

  • Amulet Titan: 44.0% (11-14)
  • Prowess: 44.4% (8-10)

Sources:
Data from 49 Modern tournaments (Sep 18 - Oct 16): 80% MTGO, 20% Melee. Sample: https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2025-10-1212819536, https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2025-10-1212819532, https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-64-2025-10-1112819525