I'll generate a Vintage matchup matrix for you using recent tournament data.
Now I'll get the head-to-head matchup data for the top archetypes:
VINTAGE MATCHUP MATRIX (Aug 16 - Oct 16, 2025)
Top 6 archetypes by meta presence with head-to-head winrates:
Initiative Blue Ctrl Oath UB Lurrus Jewel Dredge
Initiative - 42.6% 41.9% 42.0% 44.3% 51.9%
Blue Control 57.4% - 60.7% 33.3%* 58.1% 57.1%
Oath 58.1% 39.3% - 34.1% 57.7% 52.3%
UB Lurrus Control 58.0% 66.7%* 65.9% - 56.5% 56.8%
Jewel Shops 55.7% 41.9% 42.3% 43.5% - 30.3%
Dredge 48.1% 42.9% 47.7% 43.2% 69.7% -
*Small sample size (3 matches)
Initiative (13.8% meta, 49.9% overall winrate) struggles against control strategies, posting sub-45% winrates against Blue Control, Oath, and UB Lurrus Control. Blue Control (9.0% meta, 55.5% overall) shows strong matchups across the board except poor mirrors and a notably weak showing against UB Lurrus Control. UB Lurrus Control (7.7% meta, 53.6% overall) emerges as the control killer with 58-66% winrates against Initiative and crushing 65.9% against Oath.
Jewel Shops (6.2% meta, 52.5% overall) has a standout 69.7% winrate against Dredge but struggles against control variants. Dredge (6.2% meta, 44.4% overall) underperforms overall but has solid game against other fair decks. Oath (7.9% meta, 53.7% overall) presents a balanced profile with slight edges over Shops strategies and Dredge.
Sources: Data from 38 tournaments (79% MTGO, 21% Melee).
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/6a3004fa-0b06-4ef7-80c0-b37400ecec6c
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/vintage-challenge-32-2025-10-1212819534
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/vintage-challenge-32-2025-10-1112819528