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Blue Belcher Creatures Flare of Denial Comparison

1 requestsStarted 3/30/2026, 8:10:11 PM
Compare Belcher lists with the creature package and flare of denial (thundertrap trainer, fallaji archaeologist) to the lists without flare of denial

Let me gather the data needed for this analysis. First, let me search for the relevant cards and the Belcher archetype simultaneously.

Good, I have all the card IDs. Now let me query the database directly to compare Belcher entries with and without Flare of Denial, focusing on lists that include the creature package.

🛠️QueryBelcher Archetype Winrate by Card Variants
🛠️QueryFlare of Denial distribution in creature package Belcher

The recent data returned 0 rows. Let me check the actual date range of Belcher data in the database and also fix the second query.

🛠️QueryArchetype Tournament Entry Date Range and Count

Only 1 entry under "Belcher." Let me search more broadly — this archetype might be stored under a different name (e.g., "Goblin Charbelcher" or similar).

🛠️QueryBelcher and Goblin Archetypes by Tournament Entries

The main archetype is Blue Belcher with 1,645 entries. Now let me run the full comparison analysis on it.

🛠️QueryBelcher Deck Winrate by Card Inclusions
🛠️QueryBlue Belcher Creature Package Card Composition
🛠️QueryCard Usage in Archetype Tournament Decks

Here's the full breakdown:


🔵 Blue Belcher: Flare of Denial Split Analysis

Last 6 months (Sep 2025 – Mar 2026) | 627 entries

Performance by Build

BuildEntriesWinrateW / L / D
🐙 Creatures + Flare of Denial54649.1%1280 / 1326 / 56
🐙 Creatures w/o Flare of Denial242.9%3 / 4 / 0
❌ No creature pkg, No Flare7952.2%191 / 175 / 13

⚠️ Note: Only 2 entries exist with the creature package but without Flare of Denial — this sample is essentially meaningless for comparison. In practice, the creature package is almost always paired with Flare of Denial (546 vs 2 entries).


Card Usage in Creature-Package Lists (546 entries)

CardBoardAvg CopiesDecks
Thundertrap TrainerMain3.99547
Fallaji ArchaeologistMain3.89534
Flare of DenialMain3.08546
Flare of DenialSide1.03

Thundertrap Trainer is nearly a 4-of lock, while Fallaji Archaeologist is slightly more flexible (avg ~3.9). Flare of Denial averages 3.08 copies — most lists run 3, some run 4 — and is essentially a mandatory part of the creature package build.


Key Takeaway

The no-creature, no-Flare build (52.2%) slightly outperforms the creature + Flare build (49.1%) by ~3 percentage points, but sample sizes differ drastically (79 vs 546). The creature/Flare shell is by far the dominant build, representing ~87% of all entries. It's hard to separate whether the lower winrate is a function of the build itself or simply higher play volume attracting more diverse player skill levels.


Sources — 224 tournaments (56% MTGO, 44% Melee):