Good, I have all the card IDs and confirmed the archetype. Now let me run the win % queries for each card (0-4 copies) for both MAIN and SIDE boards. I'll do this with a single comprehensive query per board.
Here is the full breakdown for Pauper Jund Midrange across all 1,558 tournament entries. Winrates exclude draws. Rows with no data for a copy count mean zero entries recorded that combination (e.g., 0 entries with 1 copy of Refurbished Familiar in the MD).
MAINBOARD (MD) WIN % BY COPY COUNT
Cast Down (most common: 4 copies)
0x: 52.7% (68 entries) | 1x: 51.0% (12) | 2x: 49.8% (144) | 3x: 51.8% (512) | 4x: 49.4% (822)
Krark-Clan Shaman (most common: 3 copies)
0x: 46.4% (190) | 1x: 40.0% (9) | 2x: 47.5% (254) | 3x: 51.8% (1087) | 4x: 47.9% (18)
Lembas (most common: 2 copies)
0x: 48.3% (207) | 1x: 46.9% (160) | 2x: 51.0% (1050) | 3x: 53.4% (131) | 4x: 48.8% (10)
Mountain (most common: 1-2 copies)
0x: 59.0% (7, tiny sample) | 1x: 51.3% (794) | 2x: 49.4% (749) | 3x: 30.8% (6, tiny sample) | 4x: 25.0% (2, tiny sample)
Nihil Spellbomb (most common: 2 copies)
0x: 36.1% (26) | 1x: 49.3% (115) | 2x: 50.9% (1023) | 3x: 50.0% (329) | 4x: 48.9% (65)
Refurbished Familiar (almost universally a 4-of)
0x: 52.6% (41) | 1x: no data | 2x: 0.0% (1, tiny) | 3x: 33.3% (2, tiny) | 4x: 50.4% (1514)
Sagu Wildling (mostly played as 0 or 1 copies)
0x: 50.1% (1458) | 1x: 54.6% (95) | 2x: 63.6% (4, tiny) | 3x: 0.0% (1, tiny) | 4x: no data
Toxin Analysis (most common: 2 copies)
0x: 48.8% (503) | 1x: 51.8% (290) | 2x: 50.3% (711) | 3x: 57.1% (44) | 4x: 61.8% (10, small)
SIDEBOARD (SB) WIN % BY COPY COUNT
Cast Down (rarely sideboarded)
0x: 50.6% (1471) | 1x: 48.6% (55) | 2x: 44.8% (30) | 3x: 50.0% (2, tiny) | 4x: no data
Krark-Clan Shaman (most common SB count: 1 copy)
0x: 50.5% (1303) | 1x: 50.0% (235) | 2x: 49.2% (15) | 3x: 50.0% (4, tiny) | 4x: 33.3% (1, tiny)
Lembas: No entries in the sideboard (0x across all 1558 entries = 50.4%)
Mountain: No entries in the sideboard (0x = 50.4%)
Nihil Spellbomb (sideboard presence is common)
0x: 51.2% (907) | 1x: 49.3% (595) | 2x: 49.5% (53) | 3x: 33.3% (1, tiny) | 4x: 40.0% (2, tiny)
Refurbished Familiar: No entries in the sideboard (0x = 50.4%)
Sagu Wildling: No entries in the sideboard (0x = 50.4%)
Toxin Analysis (light SB presence)
0x: 50.4% (1159) | 1x: 51.3% (291) | 2x: 48.6% (105) | 3x: 0.0% (3, tiny) | 4x: no data
Key takeaways: Krark-Clan Shaman at 3 MD copies (51.8%) and Nihil Spellbomb at 2 MD copies (50.9%) show clear sweet spots matching their most-played configurations. Toxin Analysis trends upward at higher MD counts but sample sizes thin out fast. Mountain past 2 copies looks bad, but those samples are negligible. Sagu Wildling is a flex/1-of card -- 95 entries with 1 copy hit 54.6% vs the field. Refurbished Familiar is a nearly universal 4-of and essentially defines the archetype shell. Cast Down in the SB shows slightly declining returns as copies increase, suggesting it's primarily a MD card in this list.
Sources: Data drawn from 1,558 total entries across 35 tournaments (42% MTGO, 37% Melee, 20% Cardsrealm). Recent examples:
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/pauper-challenge-32-2026-03-2212836012
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/4677838e-f194-4ba7-a497-b414010842d3
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/pauper-challenge-32-2026-03-2112835994