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Tron Meta Performance August Breakdown

1 requestsStarted 9/30/2025, 5:49:45 PM
tell me everything about Tron since August 1st : winrate, good and bad match-up, confidence interval.

I'll analyze Tron's performance in Modern since August 1st, covering winrate, matchups, and statistical confidence. Let me gather the data.

🛠️Get Archetype Trends

Now let me get the current meta to identify key matchups to analyze:

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Now let me analyze key matchups for Tron against the top meta decks:

Tron Complete Analysis (August 1st - September 29th, 2025)

Overall Performance

Winrate: 53.6% (709W-613L, excluding mirrors)

  • Sample Size: 1,395 matches across 90 tournaments
  • 95% Confidence Interval: 50.9% - 56.3%
  • Meta Share: 7.7% presence (257 entries)

Performance Trends

Tron showed volatile weekly performance:

  • Best Week: Aug 18-24 (53.3% winrate, 9.95% presence)
  • Worst Week: Sep 1-7 (43.1% winrate, 10.67% presence)
  • Current: Stabilizing around 50-52% in recent weeks

Key Matchups Analysis

Favorable Matchups (>55% WR):

  • vs Prowess: 68.9% (31-14, 45 matches) ✅
  • vs Domain Zoo: 63.3% (50-29, 79 matches) ✅
  • vs Boros Energy: 53.1% (103-91, 194 matches) ✅

Unfavorable Matchups (<45% WR):

  • vs Amulet Titan: 20.0% (11-44, 55 matches) ❌

Even Matchups (45-55% WR):

  • vs Blue Belcher: 49.6% (65-66, 131 matches) ⚖️

Statistical Confidence

With 1,395 total matches, the 53.6% overall winrate has a margin of error of ±2.7% at 95% confidence. Key matchup confidence levels:

  • Boros Energy (194 matches): Very high confidence
  • Blue Belcher (131 matches): High confidence
  • Domain Zoo (79 matches): Moderate confidence
  • Amulet Titan (55 matches): Moderate confidence (strong negative signal)

Key Cards & Strategy

Core package remains consistent: Tron lands, Karn TGC, Kozilek's Command, and Ugin. Devourer of Destiny appears in 95% of lists (3.9 avg copies), showing strong adoption of the new threat.

Sources
Data from 103 tournaments: 83.5% MTGO, 16.5% Melee. Recent events: 2nd Chance PTQ, Modern Challenge 32, Modern Challenge 32