← Back to Sessions

Modern Affinity Optimal Card Copy Counts

1 requestsStarted 3/20/2026, 12:48:52 AM
@metamagebot.bsky.social Can you please look at Modern Affinity lists and determine which cards have the highest win rate and how many copies to play including looking at the manabase?

Good. Now I'll pull the main and sideboard card data for Affinity, as well as run a custom database query to get per-card win rate correlation (wins/losses by card presence).

🛠️Get Archetype Cards
🛠️Get Archetype Cards

Now let me run a custom SQL query to get per-card win rates for the most-played cards in Affinity mainboard, using wins/losses from tournament entries that contain each card.

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Card Performance and Popularity
🛠️QueryAffinity archetype card performance statistics

Now let me get sources to cite.

Here is the full breakdown for Modern Affinity based on 453 decks across 185 tournaments from Jan 15 to Mar 17, 2026.

CORE UNAMBIGUOUS 4-OFS (play all four, consistently 53-55% win rate)

These cards appear in 87-99% of all lists and show nearly identical win rates to each other, meaning they are the non-negotiable backbone:

  • Urza's Saga: 4 copies, 98.7% presence, 53.7% WR
  • Mox Opal: 4 copies, 98.5% presence, 53.7% WR
  • Mishra's Bauble: 4 copies, 95.6% presence, 54.4% WR
  • Pinnacle Emissary: 4 copies, 87.6% presence, 54.7% WR
  • Kappa Cannoneer: 4 copies, 87.9% presence, 54.5% WR
  • Engineered Explosives: 4 copies, 83.0% presence, 54.6% WR (note: 3 copies posts 62.9% WR in a smaller sample, suggesting slight flex here)

HIGH WIN RATE FLEX/SINGLETON SLOTS (54-61% WR at their optimal copy count)

These cards have strong signals at specific copy counts:

  • Aether Spellbomb: 1 copy, 65.6% presence, 56.95% WR — one of the highest WR singletons in the main
  • Pithing Needle: 1 copy, 66.5% presence, 56.3% WR
  • Metallic Rebuke: 3 copies, 80.4% presence, 56.9% WR — the 3-copy count clearly outperforms 2 (56.1%) and 4 (50.4%)
  • Emry, Lurker of the Loch: 2-3 copies is the sweet spot. 2 copies shows 61.5% WR, 3 copies shows 56.4% WR. Avoid 4 (46.7% WR)
  • Tormod's Crypt: 3 copies in the main, 55.2% WR. 2 copies is actually a touch better (60.4%) in a smaller sample; 4 copies (54.6%) and 1 copy (40.4%) are clearly suboptimal
  • Arcbound Ravager: 2 copies, 56.2% WR — do not jam 3 or 4 (both below 41%)
  • Welding Jar: 1 copy, 55.9% WR — 2 copies posts an impressive 65.7% WR but in only 17 decks; worth watching
  • Claws of Gix: 3 copies, 56.0% WR — outperforms 1 copy (58.2% but smaller sample) and 2 copies (49.8%)
  • Shadowspear: 1 copy, 90.7% presence, 54.1% WR — universal 1-of
  • Lavaspur Boots: 1 copy, 75.9% presence, 53.6% WR — near-universal 1-of
  • Weapons Manufacturing: 4 copies is most common (78.6% presence, 54.3% WR), but 3 copies posts 61.0% WR in a smaller sample suggesting potential flex

STANDOUT HIGH-WIN-RATE TECH (smaller samples, but real signals)

  • Skateboard: 1 copy, 61.4% WR (69 decks) — legitimate inclusion signal
  • Thundering Falls: 1 copy, 62.8% WR (42 decks) — promising tech card
  • Sink into Stupor // Soporific Springs: 3 copies is clearly optimal at 58.0% WR vs 2 copies at 52.0% and 4 copies at 52.5%

MANABASE

The U/R shell is well established. Here are the optimal land counts by win rate:

  • Spirebluff Canal: 4 copies, 82.3% presence, 54.7% WR — strong 4-of signal
  • Fiery Islet: The data favors 4 copies (80.6% presence, 52.9% WR) as the baseline, with 3 copies (55.5%) and 2 copies (55.7%) both performing better in smaller samples — possible argument for 3
  • Steam Vents: 2 copies shows a notably stronger 58.5% WR vs 1 copy at 52.9% — consider running 2
  • Shivan Reef: 1 copy shows 56.5% WR (194 decks); 2 copies shows 59.4% WR (26 decks) — another dual worth running at 1-2
  • Island: 1 copy is standard at 91.2% presence, 54.6% WR. Running 2 performs similarly (54.8%) but is much rarer — stick to 1
  • Scalding Tarn: Small samples but 2-3 copies show very high WRs (65-73%) — a fetchland package worth exploring for the most competitive builds

Cards to avoid: Ornithopter at 4 copies shows only 40.6% WR; Thoughtcast at 4 copies is 46.8% WR; Darksteel Citadel at 4 copies is 31.5% WR. These were better in old Affinity shells and do not fit the current configuration.

SIDEBOARD (most-played cards with strong presence)

  • Consign to Memory: 91.2% presence, 2-3 copies standard
  • Whipflare: 81.9% presence, ~2 copies
  • Damping Sphere: 78.2% presence, 2-3 copies
  • Galvanic Blast: 74.2% presence, 2 copies
  • Mystical Dispute: 68.2% presence, 1-2 copies
  • Grafdigger's Cage: 62.3% presence, 1 copy
  • Force of Negation: 54.1% presence, 1-2 copies

Sources: Data from 185 Modern tournaments (Jan 15 - Mar 17, 2026), 453 Affinity decks analyzed. 76.8% MTGO, 23.2% Melee.

https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2026-03-1512835326
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/f3530471-b12e-4b8e-a24e-b40e014dc6a2
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/8e464f56-e1bf-481f-b001-b40e00da2272