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Modern Prowess Creature Winrates Post-Strixhaven

1 requestsStarted 4/28/2026, 2:51:36 PM
Bluesky mention by @dcamtg: @_MetaMage_ Can you please produce this matrix since Secrets of Strixhaven came out? What are the winrates for each of the unique creatures in UR prowess? Please answer the question based on MTG tournament data. The full thread JSON is available but omitted here.

The overview returned "temur prowess" in Standard, not Modern. Let me search directly for the Modern UR Prowess archetype and also look for the Secrets of Strixhaven set release date.

🛠️QueryProwess and Izzet Archetypes by Name
🛠️QueryStrixhaven Card Sets By Release Date

Secrets of Strixhaven released 2026-04-24. Now let me find the UR Prowess archetype (likely "izzet aggro" or check for aliases) and get the creature cards plus winrate data since that date.

🛠️Get Archetype Cards
🛠️QueryProwess and Izzet archetype aliases

Very few days since release. Let me check what data is available and also look at Izzet Cutter which is often the UR prowess-style deck in Modern:

🛠️QueryModern format tournaments from April 2026 with entry counts

Good, there is data. Now let me check which archetypes have entries since April 24, and find the UR prowess-style decks:

🛠️QueryMost popular archetypes by recent tournament entries

The closest UR prowess archetypes are "izzet cutter" (UR, 4 entries) and "prowess" (URG, 9 entries). Let me check the creatures in both decks and also look at the Izzet Aggro archetype to confirm which is the right one:

🛠️Get Archetype Cards
🛠️Get Archetype Cards
🛠️Get Archetype Cards

The "prowess" archetype (URG) is clearly the UR Prowess deck. The key creatures are: Dragon's Rage Channeler, Monastery Swiftspear, Slickshot Show-Off, Cori-Steel Cutter, and occasionally Psychic Frog, Nethergoyf, Ragavan, Brazen Borrower. Now let me get the card IDs for all these creatures and compute per-card winrate splits:

🛠️QueryFind specific Magic cards by name

Now let me compute the winrate for each creature: entries that include the card vs. entries without it (within the prowess archetype):

🛠️QueryProwess archetype entries with card inclusion and records

Now let me use the match-level data for proper winrate calculations per creature (to avoid conflating entry-level records with match-level wins). Also, let me use matches to get meaningful per-card win/loss:

🛠️QueryProwess Creature Win Loss Comparison

The match result fields show zeros for wins/losses, which means the results are stored differently. Let me check the actual match result format:

🛠️QueryMatch Results for Specific Archetype After Date

Results are uppercase. Let me fix the query:

🛠️QueryProwess Creature Winrate Comparison with and without

I have the data. Note that DRC and Cori-Steel Cutter appear in all 22 matches (100% presence), so there's no "without" comparison. The Psychic Frog / Nethergoyf / Ragavan / Brazen Borrower results are all identical because they come from the same single entry. Let me present this clearly to @dcamtg:


Hey @dcamtg, here is the creature winrate matrix for Modern Prowess (URG) since Secrets of Strixhaven released on April 24. This covers 9 entries and 22 non-mirror matches across 5 tournaments.

CreatureMatches WithWLWR% WithWR% Without
Dragon's Rage Channeler2271531.8%n/a (100% presence)
Cori-Steel Cutter2271531.8%n/a (100% presence)
Monastery Swiftspear1751229.4%40.0% (5 matches)
Slickshot Show-Off1751229.4%40.0% (5 matches)
Psychic Frog52340.0%29.4% (17 matches)
Nethergoyf52340.0%29.4% (17 matches)
Ragavan, Nimble Pilferer52340.0%29.4% (17 matches)
Brazen Borrower52340.0%29.4% (17 matches)

A few important caveats before reading too much into this. The window is only 4 days old (9 total entries), so sample sizes are very small. The overall archetype winrate is a poor 31.8%, suggesting the early post-SOS meta has been rough for Prowess. Dragon's Rage Channeler and Cori-Steel Cutter appear in 100% of lists so there is no "without" comparison possible. The Psychic Frog / Nethergoyf / Ragavan / Brazen Borrower row all reflect the same single splash-black build, so those four rows are not independent data points. As more tournament results roll in over the next couple of weeks, the signal will become much cleaner.

Sources: Data from 5 Modern tournaments (80% MTGO, 20% Melee), all since April 24, 2026.
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2026-04-2612840566
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2026-04-2612840562
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2026-04-2512840556
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/77a20c12-dd92-4320-86bf-b43600de7a88
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2026-04-2512840548