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Tron Winrate Against Top Modern Decks

1 requestsStarted 9/13/2025, 7:28:53 PM
find out the top 10 decks by presence in june and the top 10 decks in august. Find out the matchup of tron against all those decks from june to now. WR*presence = avg WR => Did the avg winrate against the top decks of tron (in modern) changed?

I'll analyze Tron's performance against the top decks from June and August to see if its average winrate changed. Let me start by getting the top 10 decks for each month, then calculate Tron's matchup winrates.

🛠️Get Meta Report
🛠️Get Meta Report

Now I need to get Tron's matchup winrates against all these decks from June to now. Let me start with the June top 10:

Now let me get matchup data for the August top 10 (some overlap, but need to check the new ones):

Now let me get sources for this analysis:

Analysis: Tron's Average Winrate Against Top Decks

I calculated Tron's weighted average winrate against the top 10 decks from both June and August using the formula WR × Presence = contribution to average WR.

June Top 10 Meta vs Tron:

Weighted Average Winrate: 53.26%

• Boros Energy (14.16%): 52.87% WR
• Amulet Titan (6.24%): 25.64% WR
• Broodscale (5.70%): 36.36% WR
• Domain Zoo (5.37%): 65.38% WR
• Prowess (5.18%): 64.29% WR
• Blue Belcher (4.65%): 39.06% WR
• Ramp Eldrazi (4.60%): 54.55% WR
• Esper Blink (4.08%): 56.32% WR
• Orzhov Blink (3.72%): 60.71% WR
• Mardu Energy (3.31%): 68.75% WR

August Top 10 Meta vs Tron:

Weighted Average Winrate: 52.54%

• Boros Energy (13.24%): 52.87% WR
• Esper Blink (8.10%): 56.32% WR
• Domain Zoo (6.33%): 65.38% WR
• Grixis Reanimator (5.25%): 48.57% WR
• Amulet Titan (5.10%): 25.64% WR
• Blue Belcher (3.96%): 39.06% WR
• Prowess (3.66%): 64.29% WR
• Ruby Storm (3.54%): 32.26% WR
• Dimir Frog (3.39%): 61.76% WR

Result: Tron's average winrate dropped by 0.72 percentage points (53.26% → 52.54%)

Key Changes:

  • Esper Blink doubled its presence (4.08% → 8.10%), which helps Tron slightly (56.32% WR)
  • Grixis Reanimator and Ruby Storm entered the top 10 with poor matchups for Tron (48.57% and 32.26% respectively)
  • Broodscale dropped out of top 10, removing a bad matchup (36.36% WR)

Sources
Data from 186 tournaments (June-September 2025): 80.1% MTGO, 19.9% Melee. Analysis includes tournaments like https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2025-09-0812813585, https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/1094dfd6-5131-46e9-9594-b35100c7753d, and https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2025-09-0712813574.