Meta Analysis & Neobrand Positioning
Part 1: Archetype Presence (July 14 - September 12, 2025)
Group 1:
- Dimir Frog: 3.76% presence (111 entries)
- Blue Belcher: 4.41% presence (125 entries)
- Azorius Control: 2.95% presence (80 entries)
- Combined: ~11.1%
Group 2:
- Esper Blink: 7.21% presence (207 entries)
- Domain Zoo: 6.17% presence (176 entries)
- Combined: ~13.4%
Group 3:
- Boros Energy: 14.63% presence (409 entries) - Meta leader
- Prowess: 4.18% presence (119 entries)
- Tron: 5.58% presence (160 entries)
- Combined: ~24.4%
Part 2: Neobrand Meta Analysis
Current Position: 2.64% presence (71 entries), 52.11% winrate
Favorable Matchups:
- Boros Energy: 66.04% winrate (35-18) ✅
- Tron: 60.71% winrate (17-11) ✅
- Prowess: 61.54% winrate (8-5) ✅
Difficult Matchups:
- Azorius Control: 20.0% winrate (2-8) ❌
- Blue Belcher: 25.0% winrate (4-12) ❌
- Dimir Frog: 29.41% winrate (5-12) ❌
Even Matchups:
- Esper Blink: 50.0% winrate (16-16)
- Domain Zoo: 48.39% winrate (15-16)
Part 3: Strategic Assessment
Meta Favorability: Moderately Favorable (6.5/10)
- Crushes the #1 deck (Boros Energy) at 66% winrate
- Strong against big mana (Tron, 61%)
- Struggles against blue interaction and combo mirrors
Key Anti-Meta Cards in Current Lists:
- Veil of Summer (100% sideboards, 2.73 avg) - Protection vs blue
- Mystical Dispute (94% sideboards, 3.64 avg) - Counter wars
- Nature's Claim (84% sideboards) - Artifact/enchantment hate
Recommendations for Bad Matchups:
- vs Control: More Veil of Summer mainboard, Great Sable Stag (uncounterable threat)
- vs Blue Belcher: Additional Pact of Negation (some run extra in SB), Force of Vigor for artifacts
- vs Dimir Frog: Elesh Norn shuts down their plan, Into the Flood Maw for tempo
The meta composition heavily favors Neobrand against the most popular decks, making it a solid choice despite some challenging matchups.
Sources
Data from 64 tournaments: 85.9% MTGO, 14.1% Melee. Recent examples: Modern Challenge 32, Modern Challenge 64, Modern Challenge 32