I'll analyze conversion rates from top 32 to top 8 for Modern archetypes over the last 60 days. Let me gather the tournament data first.
Now let me get some recent tournament sources to provide context for this data.
Based on the tournament data from the last 60 days, several archetypes show exceptional conversion rates from top 32 to top 8 in Modern. Mardu Blink leads with a 50% conversion rate, making top 8 in 8 out of 16 top 32 appearances. Jeskai Cutter matches this rate with 3 top 8s from 6 top 32 finishes, though with a smaller sample size.
The most successful tier 1 archetypes include Samwise (38.5% conversion, 10/26), Simic Ritual (37.0%, 10/27), and Neobrand (32.6%, 29/89). Among the format's most popular decks, Boros Energy converts at 26.7% (123/460), while other meta staples like Domain Zoo (27.3%), Blue Belcher (27.1%), and Esper Blink (28.8%) show similar consistency.
Some established archetypes struggle with conversion despite solid representation. Broodscale converts only 19.4% (21/108), while Grixis Frog manages just 7.1% (1/14). Notably, several archetypes with 5+ top 32 appearances failed to convert any to top 8, including Yawgmoth, Lantern, and Dimir Reanimator, suggesting these decks may be hitting a ceiling in the current meta.
Sources: Data from 111 tournaments: 82.9% MTGO, 17.1% Melee
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/6f7d76be-4803-4385-95da-b35f00a1a64e
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2025-09-2112815144
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-64-2025-09-2012815138