UW Control Matchup Winrates Analysis 2024-2025

I'll analyze the winrate of UW Control decks running 4 maindeck Orim's Chant across different matchups. Let me start by gathering the necessary data.

Let me try different archetype name variations and query the database directly to find UW Control variants:

🛠️QueryUW and Azorius Archetypes Search

Great! I found "azorius control" for Modern (format_id: 402d2a82-3ba6-4369-badf-a51f3eff4375). Now let me query for matchup-level data for Azorius Control decks running exactly 4 copies of Orim's Chant in the maindeck:

🛠️QueryMatchup Frequency for Specific Archetype and Card

This is strange - all matches show 0 wins, 0 losses, and 0 draws. Let me investigate the matches table structure and verify that results are being properly recorded:

🛠️QueryPlayset Impact for Specific Archetype in Tournaments

Good, the entries have results, but the matches table appears to have NULL values in the result column. Let me check the matches table more carefully and compute matchup statistics differently:

🛠️QueryArchetype Performance with Specific Four-Card Inclusion

Ah! The result column uses uppercase values ('WIN', 'LOSS', 'DRAW') not lowercase. Let me recalculate the matchup data:

🛠️QueryMatchup Performance Against Different Archetypes

Excellent! Now let me calculate confidence intervals using the Wilson score interval method, which is appropriate for binomial proportions. I'll also get some date range context:

🛠️QueryPlayset Card in Archetype Tournament Presence

Now let me calculate confidence intervals (using Wilson score interval with z=1.96 for 95% CI):

🛠️QueryMatchup Winrates Against Specific Deck Configuration

Perfect! Now let me get some tournament sources to cite:

Azorius Control with 4 Maindeck Orim's Chant - Matchup Winrates with 95% Confidence Intervals

Based on 382 tournament entries across 226 tournaments from July 2024 to October 2025:

Top Matchups (20+ matches):

Strong Favorable:

Esper Blink: 78.6% (CI: 68.7%-86.0%) | 66-18 in 84 games
Ruby Storm: 79.4% (CI: 67.8%-87.5%) | 50-13 in 63 games
Neobrand: 76.9% (CI: 63.9%-86.3%) | 40-12 in 52 games
Azorius Blink: 79.0% (CI: 56.7%-91.5%) | 15-4 in 19 games
Hammer Time: 65.0% (CI: 43.3%-81.9%) | 13-7 in 20 games
Burn: 65.0% (CI: 43.3%-81.9%) | 13-7 in 20 games

Favorable:

Amulet Titan: 62.7% (CI: 55.2%-69.7%) | 106-63 in 169 games
Ramp Eldrazi: 59.9% (CI: 52.3%-67.0%) | 100-67 in 167 games
Orzhov Blink: 58.9% (CI: 50.1%-67.1%) | 73-51 in 124 games
Hollow One: 57.1% (CI: 39.1%-73.5%) | 16-12 in 28 games

Even:

Tron: 54.5% (CI: 45.2%-63.5%) | 60-50 in 110 games
Goryo Reanimator: 54.5% (CI: 46.7%-62.1%) | 85-71 in 156 games
Grinding Breach: 52.9% (CI: 43.4%-62.2%) | 55-49 in 104 games
Grixis Reanimator: 52.4% (CI: 37.7%-66.6%) | 22-20 in 42 games
Affinity: 50.0% (CI: 41.2%-58.8%) | 60-60 in 120 games
Jeskai Energy: 50.0% (CI: 32.1%-67.9%) | 13-13 in 26 games

Unfavorable:

Domain Zoo: 47.4% (CI: 37.8%-57.3%) | 46-51 in 97 games
Blue Belcher: 42.7% (CI: 35.2%-50.5%) | 67-90 in 157 games
Boros Energy: 42.3% (CI: 36.7%-48.1%) | 121-165 in 286 games
Samwise: 39.3% (CI: 23.6%-57.6%) | 11-17 in 28 games
Esper Frog: 39.4% (CI: 24.7%-56.3%) | 13-20 in 33 games
Prowess: 38.0% (CI: 27.6%-49.7%) | 27-44 in 71 games
Dimir Frog: 38.2% (CI: 28.1%-49.4%) | 29-47 in 76 games

Very Unfavorable:

Mill: 28.0% (CI: 14.3%-47.6%) | 7-18 in 25 games
Living End: 25.8% (CI: 13.7%-43.3%) | 8-23 in 31 games
Broodscale: 15.4% (CI: 7.3%-29.7%) | 6-33 in 39 games
Grixis Frog: 15.0% (CI: 5.2%-36.0%) | 3-17 in 20 games

Key Insights:

Excellent vs combo (Ruby Storm, Neobrand) and blink strategies
Strong vs big mana (Amulet, Eldrazi Tron, Ramp Eldrazi)
Struggles vs aggro tempo (Frog variants, Prowess, Boros Energy)
Very poor vs graveyard combo (Living End, Broodscale)

Sources:
Data from 226 tournaments: 60.8% MTGO, 39.2% Melee. Recent examples: https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2025-10-1212819536, https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2025-10-1212819532