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Affinity Matchup Winrates Last 4 Weeks

1 requestsStarted 10/17/2025, 6:26:24 PM
can you share average weekly winrate of affinity per MU for the last 4 weeks win confidence interval ?

I'll analyze Affinity's matchup performance over the last 4 weeks in Modern with confidence intervals.

🛠️Get Meta Report

Now let me get the detailed matchup data for Affinity against the top archetypes:

🛠️QueryAffinity Archetype Performance Against Opponent Decks

Now let me calculate confidence intervals using the Wilson score method:

🛠️QueryAffinity Archetype Performance Against Other Decks

I see the Wilson score calculation had an issue. Let me recalculate with the correct formula:

🛠️QueryMatchup Winrates Against Archetype in September Tournament

Affinity Matchup Winrates (Last 4 Weeks) with 95% Confidence Intervals

Overall Performance: 50.1% winrate (216-215-23 record) across 454 matches

Key Matchups (10+ matches):

Favorable (>55%):

  • Mill: 73.3% [51.0% - 95.7%] (11-4, n=15)
  • Neobrand: 66.7% [47.8% - 85.5%] (16-8, n=24)
  • Black Eldrazi: 66.7% [40.0% - 93.3%] (8-4, n=12)
  • Goryo Reanimator: 64.4% [53.4% - 75.4%] (47-26, n=73) ✓
  • Grixis Reanimator: 60.0% [29.6% - 90.4%] (6-4, n=10)
  • Blue Belcher: 57.9% [45.1% - 70.7%] (33-24, n=57) ✓
  • Azorius Control: 57.4% [43.3% - 71.6%] (27-20, n=47) ✓
  • Prowess: 57.1% [40.7% - 73.5%] (20-15, n=35)
  • Esper Blink: 56.1% [43.3% - 69.0%] (32-25, n=57) ✓

Even (45-55%):

  • Azorius Blink: 52.9% [29.2% - 76.7%] (9-8, n=17)
  • Mirror: 50.0% [39.7% - 60.3%] (45-45, n=90)
  • Ruby Storm: 50.0% [25.5% - 74.5%] (8-8, n=16)
  • Ramp Eldrazi: 50.0% [32.1% - 67.9%] (15-15, n=30)
  • Tron: 47.2% [35.7% - 58.8%] (34-38, n=72) ✓
  • Boros Energy: 45.9% [36.1% - 55.8%] (45-53, n=98) ✓
  • Domain Zoo: 45.1% [31.4% - 58.8%] (23-28, n=51)

Unfavorable (<45%):

  • Amulet Titan: 40.8% [27.1% - 54.6%] (20-29, n=49)
  • Broodscale: 17.6% [-0.5% - 35.8%] (3-14, n=17) ⚠️

✓ = High sample size (45+ matches)
⚠️ = Very unfavorable

Key Insights:

  • Strong against combo/control strategies (Reanimator, Control, Blink)
  • Slightly unfavored vs meta leaders Boros Energy and Domain Zoo
  • Broodscale is a notably bad matchup
  • Most confidence intervals are wide due to limited sample sizes

Sources:
Data from 49 tournaments (79.6% MTGO, 20.4% Melee). Recent events: Modern Challenge 10/12, Modern Challenge 10/12, Modern Challenge 10/11