Good, I have the archetype ID and format ID. Now let me pull the full card list for both main deck and sideboard, plus the raw match data to compute per-copy winrates. I'll grab the last 90 days for a solid sample.
Now I need to run the per-copy winrate analysis for both main deck and sideboard cards. This is the core query - for each card, I need to group entries by exact copy count (0-4) and compute their winrate.
Here is the full per-copy winrate breakdown and recommended build for Pauper UW (Azorius) Familiars, based on 84 entries across 40 tournaments (Jan 1 – Mar 31, 2026). The archetype's overall non-mirror winrate is 48.5%. All recommendations favor the copy count that maximizes win% among configurations with meaningful sample sizes (5+ entries). Single-copy outliers are noted but not recommended.
MAINDECK — PER-COPY WINRATE (0–4 copies)
LOCK PIECES & ENGINE CORE
Sunscape Familiar: 0=N/A, 4=48.6% (84 entries). Run 4. Universal — zero variance in the field.
Snap: 0=N/A, 3=36.4% (3 entries), 4=48.9% (81 entries). Run 4. Dropping any copy is penalized.
Azorius Chancery: 100% presence. Run 4. No copy splits in data; universal.
Mulldrifter: 3=52.4% (45 entries), 4=42.9% (39 entries). Run 3. The 4-of costs ~10 points of winrate.
Archaeomancer: 2=45.0% (11 entries), 3=48.9% (73 entries). Run 3.
Ghostly Flicker: 1=47.3% (66 entries), 2=54.2% (12 entries), 3=57.1% (5 entries). Run 2–3. The data supports 2 as the sweet spot with a solid sample; 3 looks promising but smaller n.
Ephemerate: 0=20.0% (4), 1=66.7% (3), 2=46.9% (57), 3=54.1% (12), 4=48.3% (8). Run 3. Outperforms 2x and 4x with a meaningful sample.
God-Pharaoh's Faithful: 2=56.3% (3), 3=57.1% (9), 4=46.8% (72). Run 3. Running the full 4 underperforms by ~10 points vs. 3.
Murmuring Mystic: 0=50.0% (5), 1=48.6% (9), 2=49.1% (67), 3=22.2% (3). Run 2. Third copy is a clear drag.
CANTRIPS & DRAW
Preordain: 0=57.9% (5, small), 4=49.0% (77). Run 4. Near-universal; skipping it costs equity.
Lorien Revealed: 0=42.9%, 4=49.3% (67 entries). Run 4. Best at max copies; all lower counts underperform.
Sea Gate Oracle: 0=45.5%, 2=44.7%, 3=50.8% (47 entries), 4=50.0% (2). Run 3.
Meeting of Minds: 0=46.8% (30), 2=51.6% (10), 3=48.3% (43). Run 2. Small but positive edge over 3.
COUNTERSPELLS / INTERACTION
Prohibit: 0=40.5% (11), 1=0% (1), 2=50.0% (71). Run 2 exactly. This is a strong signal — playing 0 or any count other than 2 drags your win%.
Negate (main): 0=44.9% (15), 1=52.9% (26), 2=46.8% (43). Run 1. Best at a single copy in the main.
Glorious Gale (main): 0=47.3% (76), 1=58.0% (8). Run 1. Strong 8-entry sample — a single copy lifts winrate by ~10 points.
Cryogen Relic: 0=48.1% (77), 4=55.2% (7). Run 4 or 0 — this is a go-big or go-home card. The data supports going to 4 in builds that include it.
Thraben Charm (main): 0=48.3% (69), 1=48.2% (14). Neutral — skip main, see sideboard.
Ponder: 0=49.3%, 4=30.8% (9). Do NOT run. Full 4-of tanks winrate significantly. Skip.
Deep Analysis (main): 0=49.4% (68), all positive copies underperform. Skip main.
The Modern Age // Vector Glider: 0=49.2% (73), 3=43.5%, 4=38.5%. Do NOT run. Consistently below baseline.
Foil (main): 0=49.9% (73), all copies drag winrate below 44%. Skip.
Stonehorn Dignitary (main): 0=48.2%, 1=47.4%, 2=60.0% (2). Skip main — tiny sample at 2, not reliable.
RECOMMENDED MAINDECK (60 cards):
4 Sunscape Familiar
4 Snap
4 Azorius Chancery
4 Lorien Revealed
4 Preordain
3 Mulldrifter
3 Archaeomancer
3 God-Pharaoh's Faithful
3 Ephemerate
3 Sea Gate Oracle
2 Murmuring Mystic
2 Ghostly Flicker
2 Meeting of Minds
2 Prohibit
1 Negate
1 Glorious Gale
Lands: Island x8, Plains x2, Mortuary Mire x1, Contaminated Landscape x3, Idyllic Beachfront x1, Glacial Floodplain x1
(total cards to tune to 60 — adjust land count as needed based on your flex slots)
SIDEBOARD — PER-COPY WINRATE (0–4 copies)
Stonehorn Dignitary: 0=32.4% (11), 1=40.9% (13), 2=52.3% (59), 3=40.0% (1). Run exactly 2. This is one of the strongest SB signals in the dataset — going from 0 to 2 is worth +20 points.
Hydroblast: 0=46.3% (17), 1=16.7% (5), 2=50.0% (4), 3=43.5% (5), 4=51.6% (53). Run 4. The card needs to be run at full count; 1–3 copies hurt.
Negate (side): 0=40.3% (13), 1=44.4% (17), 2=52.7% (51), 3=27.3% (3). Run exactly 2. Strongest performance at 2, collapses at 3.
Thraben Charm (side): 0=41.0% (22), 1=51.6% (34), 2=48.0% (24), 3=54.5% (4). Run 1–2. Strong gain over 0; 1-of is well-supported with 34 entries.
Last Breath: 0=47.3% (18), 1=50.0% (5), 2=46.8% (56), 3=65.6% (5). Run 3. Striking jump at 3 copies — small but compelling.
Dust to Dust: 0=53.1% (41), 1=61.5% (3), 2=41.6% (20), 3=47.5% (17), 4=37.5% (3). Run 1 or skip. Counter-intuitively, the more you run, the worse the results. 1-copy as hate is likely sufficient.
Glorious Gale (side): 0=47.3% (63), 1=50.0% (6), 2=52.2% (15). Run 2. Consistent improvement as copies increase.
Essence Scatter (side): 0=47.5% (62), 1=41.7% (3), 2=52.5% (19). Run 2.
Blue Elemental Blast: 0=49.4% (51), 1=53.1% (5), 2=56.3% (7), 3=35.0% (4), 4=44.4% (17). Run 2. Sweet spot before diminishing returns.
Murmuring Mystic (side): 0=47.0% (72), 1=57.1% (11). Run 1 as a SB option.
Revoke Existence: 0=48.0% (73), 1=33.3% (5), 2=66.7% (5). Run 2 if running it at all — the 2-copy result is the standout.
Remove Soul (side): 0=49.1% (66), 1=52.4% (9), 2=32.0% (9). Run 1. Hard drop-off at 2.
Circle of Protection: Blue: 0=49.3% (56), 1=43.6% (7), 2=48.6% (21). Skip — no clear upside.
Envelop: 0=49.6% (74), 1=38.1%, 2=38.9%. Skip — consistently underperforms baseline.
RECOMMENDED SIDEBOARD (15 cards):
4 Hydroblast
3 Last Breath
2 Stonehorn Dignitary
2 Negate
2 Glorious Gale
2 Essence Scatter
(flex: 1 Revoke Existence or 1 Remove Soul or 1 Murmuring Mystic depending on expected field — all show positive return at 1 copy)
Note: Dust to Dust only earns a slot if heavy artifacts are expected in your specific meta; run just 1.
IMPORTANT CAVEATS: Many copy counts have small samples (under 10 entries), especially the extreme ends (0-of and 4-of for flex cards). Treat those data points as directional rather than conclusive. The most reliable signals come from cards like Prohibit (2 copies, 71 entries), Negate SB (2 copies, 51 entries), Hydroblast (4 copies, 53 entries), Stonehorn Dignitary (2 copies, 59 entries), and Mulldrifter (3 copies, 45 entries) — these have strong sample sizes and should be weighted most heavily.
Sources: Data from 84 entries across 40 Pauper tournaments (Jan 1 – Mar 31, 2026). Source breakdown: 40% Melee, 35% MTGO, 25% CardsRealm.