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Standard Izzet Prowess flex slots winrate analysis

1 requestsStarted 6/18/2026, 3:47:58 PM
Bluesky mention by @takhs25453628: @_MetaMage_ for the standard izzet prowess deck, suggest flex slot cards for mainboard and sideboard ranked by winrate contribution, not by presence. Please answer the question based on MTG tournament data. The full thread JSON is available but omitted here.

Good, I have the archetype ID and format ID. Now let me get the main and sideboard cards, plus do a winrate split analysis for flex cards (those with less than ~90% presence).

🛠️Get Archetype Cards
🛠️Get Archetype Cards

Now I need to run winrate-split queries for the flex mainboard cards (those between ~10-90% presence) and the sideboard cards. Let me query the database for winrate contributions.

Now let me run the winrate-split queries for all the flex mainboard cards:

🛠️QueryCards containing Ral with Crackling or Wit
🛠️QuerySideboard card impact analysis by win rate
🛠️QuerySideboard card win rate impact analysis
🛠️QueryCard inclusion win-loss comparison by archetype
🛠️Query

The "UNION ALL SELECT" with MAX and CASE seems to trigger an issue. Let me try a different approach using individual queries.

🛠️QueryCard winrates by archetype and format period

Now I have all the data I need. Let me also get the baseline winrate and sources.

I now have all the data needed to provide a comprehensive, data-backed answer. Let me compile the analysis.

Here is the full breakdown for Standard Izzet Prowess flex slots, ranked by winrate of decks containing each card. The archetype baseline is 53.1% (excl. mirrors) across 57 tournaments from April 15 to June 15.

MAINBOARD FLEX SLOTS (10-90% presence, ranked by winrate with the card)

The cards below are defined as flex: cards appearing in roughly 25-70% of Izzet Prowess mainboards. Core staples like Stormchaser's Talent, Slickshot Show-Off, Sleight of Hand, Opt, Burst Lightning, and Flow State all sit above 90% presence and are not flex.

  1. Vibrant Outburst (45% presence, 1367 MAIN copies avg): 53.8% WR -- +0.7pp above baseline. The highest-performing flex mainboard card. Fits well as a 1-2 of burst-damage spell.

  2. Into the Flood Maw (17% presence, 436 entries): 53.6% WR -- +0.5pp. Smaller sample but consistently above baseline. A tempo-swing flex option.

  3. Colorstorm Stallion (42% presence, 1075 entries): 53.1% WR -- right at baseline. A new Secrets of Strixhaven addition showing up in nearly half of lists; neither helping nor hurting on aggregate but clearly seen as a role-player.

  4. Spell Pierce main (55% presence, 1420 entries): 52.9% WR -- flat to baseline. Still a solid pick as a 1-2 of to interact on the stack.

  5. Drake Hatcher (27% presence, 693 entries): 52.6% WR -- slightly below baseline.

  6. Secret Identity (50% presence, 1282 entries): 52.6% WR -- flat to baseline.

  7. Roaring Furnace // Steaming Sauna (53% presence, 1371 entries): 52.5% WR -- at baseline.

  8. Get Out (51% presence, 1305 entries): 52.3% WR -- marginally below baseline.

  9. Impractical Joke (49% presence, 1273 entries): 52.3% WR -- flat to baseline.

  10. Eddymurk Crab (68% presence, 1761 entries): 52.2% WR -- just below baseline, despite being the most-played flex card. Its raw match volume is the highest, suggesting it's a meta-dependent pick.

  11. Bounce Off (35% presence, 890 entries): 51.8% WR -- below baseline.

  12. Elusive Otter // Grove's Bounty (27% presence, 703 entries): 50.9% WR -- notably below baseline; this card underperforms regardless of moderate adoption.

  13. Wild Ride (24% presence, 615 entries): 50.8% WR -- the worst-performing mainboard flex option with meaningful sample size. Avoid.

SIDEBOARD FLEX SLOTS (ranked by winrate of decks containing each card)

The four near-locked sideboard staples are Spell Pierce (85%), Ral, Crackling Wit (79%), Slagstorm (79%), and Get Out (78%). Among those four, Slagstorm (53.0%) and Spell Pierce (52.7%) edge out Ral (51.6%) in winrate -- worth noting that Ral actually underperforms the field despite near-universal adoption.

True sideboard flex cards (under 60% presence):

  1. Wild Ride (4% presence, 97 entries): 60.0% WR -- the strongest signal in the sideboard, though the sample is small. Likely a niche hate card that players bring for specific matchups and win those.

  2. Elusive Otter // Grove's Bounty (5% presence, 135 entries): 56.8% WR -- another small-sample overperformer. Worth a 1-of slot in specific metas.

  3. Bounce Off (18% presence, 474 entries): 54.1% WR -- solid flex option with a meaningful sample. Good against wide boards.

  4. Drake Hatcher (16% presence, 424 entries): 53.4% WR -- performs well as a sideboard threat in grindy matchups.

  5. Colorstorm Stallion (30% presence, 764 entries): 53.3% WR -- the best large-sample sideboard flex card. Versatile threat with above-baseline results.

  6. Roaring Furnace // Steaming Sauna (48% presence, 1245 entries): 53.3% WR -- strong performer, nearly a staple at this adoption rate.

  7. Negate (34% presence, 870 entries): 52.5% WR -- reliable at-baseline pick for control-heavy metagames.

  8. Spell Snare (32% presence, 824 entries): 52.5% WR -- identical to Negate in WR; meta-dependent.

  9. Wan Shi Tong, Librarian (27% presence, 685 entries): 52.5% WR -- a grind engine option for slower matchups.

  10. Disdainful Stroke (56% presence, 1435 entries): 52.3% WR -- safe include against big-spell decks.

  11. Annul (45% presence, 1159 entries): 52.2% WR -- slightly below average among countermagic options.

  12. Ghost Vacuum (46% presence, 1184 entries): 52.1% WR -- graveyard hate; essentially at baseline.

  13. Broadside Barrage (58% presence, 1497 entries): 51.9% WR -- wide adoption but below-baseline results. May be over-represented relative to its performance.

  14. Soul-Guide Lantern (49% presence, 1272 entries): 51.2% WR -- graveyard hate but underperforms Ghost Vacuum. Abrade (17% presence, 428 entries) at 51.3% and Sear (54% presence, 1388 entries) at 51.4% are also near the bottom. Ral, Crackling Wit (51.6%) -- despite its near-universal adoption -- sits surprisingly low, suggesting it may be a consensus pick that doesn't actually move the needle much.

SUMMARY: On the main, Vibrant Outburst and Into the Flood Maw are the clearest positive-delta flex cards. On the side, Wild Ride and Elusive Otter show the highest winrates in small samples; Colorstorm Stallion and Bounce Off are the best-supported options with larger samples. Cut Elusive Otter and Wild Ride from the main, and think twice about Ral, Crackling Wit and Broadside Barrage if you're optimizing for winrate over consensus.

Sources: Data from 130 tournaments (Apr 15 - Jun 15 2026), 51.5% MTGO / 48.5% Melee, covering 2,566 Izzet Prowess entries.
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/standard-challenge-32-2026-06-1412844341
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/standard-challenge-32-2026-06-1312844317
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/standard-challenge-32-2026-06-1212844309