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Legacy Local Meta Deck Matchup Winrates

1 requestsStarted 1/31/2026, 5:36:23 PM
simulate winrate of local legacy meta decks vs each other: Dimir tempo Infect Mono black helm Cloudpost Omnitell-aluren Sneak and show Cephalid breakfast Maverick Sultai tempo Orzhov DnT Yorion cephalid breakfast Mono-white initiative

I'll simulate the winrate matrix for these Legacy archetypes by querying head-to-head performance data from the tournament database.

Now let me get matchup data for these Legacy archetypes. I'll query the last 6 months of data:

Let me check what Legacy archetypes are actually in the database:

๐Ÿ› ๏ธGet Meta Report

Good! I can see several of the requested archetypes exist. Let me verify the others and query the matchup data systematically:

Let me look for the missing archetypes and try to create a comprehensive matchup matrix with what we have:

Good! Now let me query a comprehensive matchup matrix for the decks we've identified. I'll use the database to get head-to-head matchup data:

๐Ÿ› ๏ธQueryDeck Matchup Performance Across Different Archetypes

Perfect! Now let me get data for "Infect" in Legacy (it returned a Modern archetype earlier):

๐Ÿ› ๏ธQueryInfect Archetypes in Specific Format
๐Ÿ› ๏ธQueryInfect Deck Matchup Winrates Against Specific Archetypes

Excellent! Now let me compile this into a comprehensive matchup matrix. Let me also get the reverse matchups for Infect and check for "Yorion Cephalid Breakfast":

๐Ÿ› ๏ธQueryInfect Matchup Performance Against Diverse Decks
๐Ÿ› ๏ธQueryYorion Archetype Names by Format ID

Now let me get matchup data for Helm Yorion and also check if there's a "Yorion Cephalid Breakfast" variant:

๐Ÿ› ๏ธQueryCephalid and Breakfast Archetypes in Format

Perfect! Now I have enough data to create a comprehensive matchup matrix. Let me compile the results:

Legacy Local Meta Matchup Winrate Simulation

Based on tournament data from the last 6 months (Jul 2025 - Jan 2026), here's the head-to-head matchup matrix for your local Legacy meta:

Matchup Matrix (Winrates from Row deck's perspective)

Deckvs Dimir Tempovs Infectvs Mono-B Helmvs Postvs Show&Tellvs Breakfastvs Maverickvs Sultaivs DnTvs Initiativevs Aluren
Dimir Tempo-90.9% (10-0)60.0% (3-2)46.6% (48-55)57.6% (118-87)49.2% (61-63)20.0% (1-4)63.6% (7-4)40.5% (30-44)0.0% (0-4)0.0% (0-1)
Infect0.0% (0-10)--66.7% (4-2)42.9% (6-8)41.7% (5-7)--0.0% (0-2)--
Mono-B Helm40.0% (2-3)--0.0% (0-3)16.7% (1-5)0.0% (0-5)-----
Post (Cloudpost)53.4% (55-48)33.3% (2-4)100% (3-0)-40.8% (42-61)61.8% (34-21)50.0% (2-2)33.3% (2-4)72.7% (24-9)100% (1-0)0.0% (0-1)
Show and Tell42.4% (87-118)57.1% (8-6)83.3% (5-1)59.2% (61-42)-47.5% (38-42)37.5% (3-5)58.3% (7-5)52.3% (34-31)0.0% (0-1)66.7% (2-1)
Cephalid Breakfast50.8% (63-61)58.3% (7-5)100% (5-0)38.2% (21-34)52.5% (42-38)-33.3% (2-4)66.7% (2-1)57.1% (24-18)0.0% (0-5)-
Maverick80.0% (4-1)--50.0% (2-2)62.5% (5-3)66.7% (4-2)--0.0% (0-2)0.0% (0-1)-
Sultai Tempo36.4% (4-7)--66.7% (4-2)41.7% (5-7)33.3% (1-2)--12.5% (1-7)--
Death & Taxes (DnT)59.5% (44-30)100% (2-0)-27.3% (9-24)47.7% (31-34)42.9% (18-24)100% (2-0)87.5% (7-1)---
Mono-W Initiative100% (4-0)--0.0% (0-1)100% (1-0)100% (5-0)100% (1-0)----
Aluren100% (1-0)--100% (1-0)33.3% (1-2)------

Key Insights:

Strongest Performers:

  • Mono-White Initiative: Crushing most matchups with limited data (100% vs Dimir, Breakfast, Maverick)
  • Dimir Tempo: Dominant vs Infect (91%), strong vs Show&Tell (58%)
  • Post: Excellent vs DnT (73%), Breakfast (62%), but struggles vs Show&Tell (41%)

Weakest Performers:

  • Mono-Black Helm: Losing badly vs most decks (0% vs Post, Breakfast, 17% vs Show&Tell)
  • Infect: Struggles vs Dimir (0%), DnT (0%), mediocre elsewhere

Notable Polarized Matchups:

  • Dimir Tempo crushes Infect (91%) but loses hard to Initiative (0%) and Maverick (20%)
  • Post dominates DnT (73%) but is unfavored vs Show&Tell (41%)
  • Initiative appears unbeaten in limited matches

Format Context:

  • Sample sizes vary significantly (100+ matches for top decks, <10 for fringe decks)
  • Extreme winrates with small samples should be taken with caution

Sources:
Data from 269 Legacy tournaments (57% MTGO, 43% Melee) between July 2025 and January 2026. Recent events include https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/legacy-challenge-32-2026-01-2512830662 and https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/595a18df-1b16-45ca-a99e-b3db014dd7ca.