Here is the breakdown for Caw Gate in Pauper over the last ~6 months:
4 copies of Prismatic Strands (mainboard): 271 entries, 668 wins / 581 losses / 103 draws — 53.48% winrate (excluding draws)
3 copies of Prismatic Strands (mainboard): 34 entries, 68 wins / 80 losses / 18 draws — 45.95% winrate (excluding draws)
The 4-copy builds outperform the 3-copy builds by a notable 7.5 percentage points. The sample on 4 copies is also much larger (271 vs 34 entries), so that result carries considerably more weight. It's worth noting this is correlation, not causation — players running 4 Strands may also be making other deckbuilding decisions that contribute to stronger results. That said, the gap is consistent with the conventional wisdom that Prismatic Strands rewards redundancy given its flashback mechanic.
Sources: Data drawn from 305 pauper tournaments (49.2% Melee, 34.1% MTGO, 16.7% Cardsrealm). Recent examples:
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/pauper-challenge-32-2026-03-2212836012
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/ca341786-5c58-4fc1-9382-b41200ccf507
Let me gather the necessary IDs first.
Got both IDs. Now I'll query the database for winrates split by 3 vs. 2 copies of Thraben Charm in the mainboard.
The difference between 2 and 3 copies of Thraben Charm in the Caw Gate mainboard is very slim. Across all available data, 2-copy builds posted a 51.87% winrate over 304 entries (692W-642L), while 3-copy builds came in at 52.68% over 177 entries (422W-379L). That is roughly a 0.8 percentage point edge for the 3-copy version, which is small enough that it likely falls within noise given the sample sizes involved.
For context, the archetype's average Thraben Charm count is 2.4 copies per deck, suggesting most pilots split between 2 and 3, so there is no strong consensus around a definitive number. The marginal gain from the third copy does not appear decisive based on tournament results alone.
Sources: Data drawn from 303 Pauper tournaments (48.8% Melee, 34.3% MTGO, 16.8% Cardsrealm). Recent events include:
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/ca341786-5c58-4fc1-9382-b41200ccf507
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/pauper-challenge-32-2026-03-2212836012
Let me look up the card IDs for Thraben Inspector and Prismatic Strands, then run the analysis.
I notice the key card is "Thraben Charm" not "Thraben Inspector." Let me search for Thraben Charm and then run the win percentage splits.
Got it. Now let me run both splits — entries with exactly 3 Thraben Charm in the main deck vs. exactly 2.
The match result query returned zero wins/losses — the result column likely uses different values. Let me check the actual result values in the matches table.
Here are the results over the last 6 months, excluding mirrors:
2 Thraben Charm (main): 52.73% winrate across 178 entries (406W / 364L / 51D, 821 total matches)
3 Thraben Charm (main): 53.50% winrate across 132 entries (321W / 279L / 56D, 656 total matches)
The gap is quite narrow — only about 0.77 percentage points in favor of the 3-copy builds. Neither result is dramatically better, which lines up with the archetype overview showing Thraben Charm at an average of 2.4 copies across all Caw Gate lists. Most pilots are splitting the difference, and the data doesn't make a strong case for either count being clearly superior. If anything, the slight edge for 3 copies is suggestive but not conclusive given the sample sizes.
Sources: Data from 303 Pauper tournaments (Sep 2025 - Mar 2026), sourced 48.8% Melee, 34.3% MTGO, 16.8% Cardsrealm.
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/ca341786-5c58-4fc1-9382-b41200ccf507
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/pauper-challenge-32-2026-03-2212836012