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Boros Energy Optimal Modern Deck Choice

1 requestsStarted 10/15/2025, 10:21:09 AM
In a modern metagame consisting of the following decks, what deck should you bring for the highest average winrate. | Tron | 4 | | Esper Blink | 4 | | Boros Energy | 3 | | Affinity | 3 | | Domain Zoo | 3 | | Esper Goryos | 2 | | Broodscale | 2 | | UW Control | 1 | | Living End | 1 | | Yawgmoth | 1 | | U Belcher | 1 | Storm | 1 |

I'll analyze the matchup data for this specific metagame to determine which deck has the highest expected winrate. Let me gather head-to-head data for the major contenders against this field.

Let me gather more matchup data to complete the analysis:

Based on the matchup data, let me calculate the expected winrate for the top contenders in this specific metagame:

Recommended Deck: Boros Energy

Given your metagame breakdown, Boros Energy appears to be the strongest choice with an estimated 51.3% expected winrate.

Expected Winrate Calculation:

Boros Energy performance against your field:

  • vs Tron (4/26 = 15.4%): 51.6% winrate
  • vs Esper Blink (4/26 = 15.4%): 52.2% winrate
  • vs Affinity (3/26 = 11.5%): 55.7% winrate
  • vs Domain Zoo (3/26 = 11.5%): 45.2% winrate (weakness)
  • vs Boros Energy (3/26 = 11.5%): 50% (mirror)
  • vs Broodscale (2/26 = 7.7%): 50.7% winrate
  • vs Living End (1/26 = 3.8%): 53.3% winrate

Weighted Average: ~51.3%

Why Boros Energy?

  • Favorable against the top decks: Positive matchups vs Tron (51.6%), Esper Blink (52.2%), and Affinity (55.7%) - which represent 42% of your field
  • Only one bad matchup: Domain Zoo at 45.2% is your main concern (representing 11.5% of the field)
  • Well-rounded: Performs at 50%+ against most of the field

Alternative Consideration: Domain Zoo (~48.5% expected)

  • Strong vs Living End (60.9%) and Esper Blink (53.3%)
  • Weak vs Tron (42.9%), Broodscale (38.5%), and Boros Energy (54.8%)
  • The high Tron count (15.4% of field) hurts this choice

Sources:
Data from 120 Modern tournaments (Aug 13 - Oct 13, 2025): 80% MTGO, 20% Melee. Recent events: Modern Challenge 10/12, Modern Challenge 10/12, Modern Challenge 10/11