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Torch the Tower Impact on Mono Red Winrate

1 requestsStarted 10/4/2025, 4:13:06 PM
correlation between copies of torch the tower in izzet cauldron and mono red winrate in standard

I'll analyze the correlation between Torch the Tower copies in Izzet Cauldron decks and mono-red winrate in Standard. Let me gather the relevant data.

Let me search for mono red in Standard specifically:

🛠️QueryMono Red Archetype Names in Specific Format

Now let me get recent data for the last 60 days and analyze Torch the Tower usage in Izzet Cauldron and mono red performance:

🛠️QueryImpact of Torch Copies on Deck Performance

Let me get more detailed correlation analysis and also check if there's any temporal correlation:

🛠️QueryIzzet Cauldron Torch and Mono Red Winrate Trends

Based on my analysis of Standard tournament data from the last 60 days, here's what I found regarding the correlation between Torch the Tower copies in Izzet Cauldron and mono red winrate:

Key Findings

Torch the Tower Usage in Izzet Cauldron:

  • 0 copies: 308 decks (34%), 50.0% winrate
  • 1 copy: 156 decks (17%), 48.1% winrate
  • 2 copies: 229 decks (25%), 51.4% winrate
  • 3 copies: 212 decks (23%), 51.4% winrate
  • 4 copies: 6 decks (1%), 44.1% winrate

Mono Red Performance:

  • Mono Red Aggro: 43.5% average winrate
  • Mono Red Dragons: 45.9% average winrate

Temporal Correlation Analysis

The weekly data shows an inverse correlation pattern:

  • Week 2025-30: 2.72 avg Torch copies → 35.0% mono red winrate
  • Week 2025-33: 1.03 avg Torch copies → 46.7% mono red winrate
  • Week 2025-34: 0.83 avg Torch copies → 47.5% mono red winrate
  • Week 2025-38: 2.50 avg Torch copies → 40.6% mono red winrate

Pattern: When Izzet Cauldron runs more Torch the Tower copies, mono red winrate tends to decrease, suggesting Torch effectively answers red threats.

Statistical Insights

  • Izzet Cauldron decks running 2-3 copies of Torch show the highest winrates (~51.4%)
  • Zero copies and 4 copies both show lower performance
  • The sweet spot appears to be 2-3 copies for optimal performance against the field
  • Mono red struggles most when facing higher Torch density (correlation coefficient appears negative)

Sources
Data from 102 tournaments: 68.6% MTGO, 31.4% Melee. Recent events: Standard Challenge 32, RCQ at Family Game Knight, Standard Challenge 32.