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Affinity Builds Winrate Matchup Analysis

1 requestsStarted 10/21/2025, 10:30:14 PM
please compare (1) affinity with both metalic rebuke and weapons manufacturing maindeck and (2) affinity with only metalic rebuke maindeck against : affinity, titan, jeskai blink, goryo reanimator, blue belcher, domain zoo, boros energy, neobrand, azorius control, eldrazi ramp and tron. For each, provide winrate, confidence interval.

I'll analyze the matchup data for these two Affinity configurations against the requested archetypes. Let me start by gathering the necessary information.

Now let me search for Cranial Ram (the likely card name for "weapons manufacturing"):

Let me check if "Cranial Ram" might be what you meant, or search for the actual card:

Let me try another search - perhaps you meant a different card. Let me search more broadly:

🛠️QueryWeapon and Manufacturing Related Cards

Perfect! Found "Weapons Manufacturing". Now let me query the database to compare these two Affinity configurations across all the requested matchups:

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Variants with Rebuke and Manufacturing

Great! Now let me get the matchup data for both variants against all the requested archetypes:

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Variants Performance Against Archetypes

I see the issue - all wins/losses/draws are showing as 0. This suggests a problem with how the matches table records results. Let me investigate the data structure:

🛠️QueryMatch Outcomes in Tournaments Between July and October 2025

The data exists. Let me check the issue more carefully - I think the problem is that I'm counting all matches (including non-result records). Let me rewrite the query:

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Variants Performance Against Archetypes

Perfect! Now I have the data. Let me check if "titan" includes multiple variants:

🛠️QueryTitan Archetypes in Specific Format

Let me re-run the query to include all Titan variants:

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Performance with Rebuke Cards

Excellent! Now let me check if Eldrazi Ramp exists or has different naming:

🛠️QueryEldrazi and Ramp Archetypes in Specified Format

Perfect! "Ramp Eldrazi" exists. Now let me get the final complete dataset:

🛠️QueryAffinity Deck Performance with Rebuke Variants

Perfect! Now let me get sources to cite:

Now let me calculate winrates and confidence intervals. For confidence intervals, I'll use the Wilson score interval which is appropriate for binomial proportions:

Based on the tournament data from the last 3 months (July 16 - October 16, 2025), here's the matchup comparison:

Affinity with Both Metallic Rebuke + Weapons Manufacturing (92 entries)

MatchupW-L-DWinrate95% CI
Affinity (mirror)25-21-454.3%39.0-69.1%
Titan (all variants)11-14-144.0%24.4-65.1%
Jeskai Blink3-1-075.0%19.4-99.4%
Goryo Reanimator29-14-367.4%52.0-80.5%
Blue Belcher15-4-178.9%54.4-93.9%
Domain Zoo6-10-037.5%15.2-64.6%
Boros Energy20-22-547.6%31.4-64.2%
Neobrand8-5-161.5%31.6-86.1%
Azorius Control15-9-162.5%40.6-81.2%
Eldrazi Ramp4-8-233.3%9.9-65.1%
Tron19-17-052.8%35.5-69.6%

Affinity with Only Metallic Rebuke (191 entries)

MatchupW-L-DWinrate95% CI
Affinity (mirror)21-28-242.9%28.8-57.8%
Titan (all variants)12-27-330.8%16.5-48.7%
Jeskai Blink0-3-10.0%0.0-70.8%
Goryo Reanimator23-18-156.1%39.7-71.5%
Blue Belcher26-31-445.6%32.0-59.7%
Domain Zoo32-24-257.1%42.2-71.2%
Boros Energy56-68-445.2%36.1-54.4%
Neobrand13-10-056.5%34.5-76.8%
Azorius Control12-16-242.9%24.5-62.8%
Eldrazi Ramp10-6-262.5%35.4-84.8%
Tron23-40-636.5%24.7-49.7%

Key Findings:

Best improvements with Rebuke + Manufacturing:

  • Blue Belcher: +33.3pp (78.9% vs 45.6%)
  • Goryo Reanimator: +11.3pp (67.4% vs 56.1%)
  • Azorius Control: +19.6pp (62.5% vs 42.9%)
  • Tron: +16.3pp (52.8% vs 36.5%)

Worse with Rebuke + Manufacturing:

  • Domain Zoo: -19.6pp (37.5% vs 57.1%)
  • Eldrazi Ramp: -29.2pp (33.3% vs 62.5%)
  • Titan: +13.2pp (44.0% vs 30.8%) - but both bad

Statistical notes:

  • Small sample warnings: Jeskai Blink (4 matches each), Eldrazi Ramp (12-18 matches)
  • Most reliable data: Boros Energy (175 total matches), Tron (105 total matches)

The Rebuke + Manufacturing build appears stronger against combo (Goryo, Belcher) and control (Azorius, counterspells), while sacrificing percentage against aggressive midrange decks (Zoo, Eldrazi Ramp).

Sources:

Data from 134 Modern tournaments (83.6% MTGO, 16.4% Melee):