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Mystic Forge Combo Legacy Matchup Analysis

1 requestsStarted 4/23/2026, 10:59:15 AM
@metamagebot.bsky.social what matchup data do you have for Legacy decks with 4 Candelabra of Tawnos?

Good, I have the card ID for Candelabra of Tawnos. Now let me find entries running 4 copies in Legacy and pull their matchup data.

๐Ÿ› ๏ธQueryTournament entries with specific card in format

Good. All 66 entries are "Mystic Forge Combo" - this is what the DB calls the Tron/combo deck. Now let me get the matchup breakdown for these entries against other archetypes.

๐Ÿ› ๏ธQueryMatchups for four copy card decks in format

The match-level W/L/D isn't populating from that join โ€” the match results are recorded but zeroed at the result level. Let me try the matchup winrate tool directly, and also check what the match results look like in the DB for these entries.

๐Ÿ› ๏ธQueryMatch results for Tron decks in format

Good, the results use 'WIN'/'LOSS' not 'W'/'L'. Let me rerun the matchup breakdown with correct result values.

๐Ÿ› ๏ธQueryMatchup winrates for four-of card in format

Here's the full matchup breakdown for Legacy decks running 4 Candelabra of Tawnos (all registered as Mystic Forge Combo in the database) over the past ~6 months, 66 entries across 291 matches:

FAVORABLE matchups (sorted by sample size):

  • Energy: 78.3% (18-5, 23 matches) -- the deck absolutely crushes this
  • Doomsday: 66.7% (8-4, 12 matches)
  • Dimir Tempo: 58.1% (18-13, 31 matches) -- solid edge vs the most popular tempo deck
  • Izzet Delver: 83.3% (5-1, 6 matches -- small sample)
  • Jeskai Midrange: 100% (5-0, 5 matches -- small sample)
  • Painter: 60.0% (3-2, 5 matches)

ROUGHLY EVEN:

  • Blue Artifacts: 54.5% (6-5, 11 matches)
  • Aluren: 50.0% (4-4, 8 matches)
  • Azorius Midrange: 45.5% (5-6, 11 matches)

UNFAVORABLE matchups:

  • Oops All Spells: 44.4% (16-20, 36 matches) -- biggest sample and a losing matchup
  • Show and Tell: 41.7% (10-14, 24 matches)
  • Lands: 22.2% (2-7, 9 matches) -- Wasteland/Stage is brutal as expected
  • Sultai Reanimator: 16.7% (1-5, 6 matches)

So @kankato's intuition is well-founded in the data. The Lands matchup is rough (22%) and Oops and Show and Tell are both losing matchups. Where the deck thrives is against fair blue decks and Energy shells that can't interact with the combo fast enough. Dimir Tempo at 58% is the key result -- if that deck keeps being the most-played fair deck, Tron has a meaningful edge there to compensate for the combo deck losses.

Sources: Data from 66 entries across 129 tournaments (64.3% MTGO, 35.7% Melee). Recent examples: https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/legacy-challenge-32-2026-04-1912839702 and https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/legacy-challenge-32-2026-04-1912839696