The archetype overview returned a Modern result rather than Pauper. Let me pull the correct Pauper archetype, get the card ID for Utrom Monitor from the database, and check recent Pauper meta data simultaneously.
Good — Utrom Monitor is not yet in the database (it's not found under any name variant). Now let me run the per-copy winrate splits for all the key maindeck and sideboard cards. I'll batch these queries.
The SQL queries had escaping issues. Let me fix and re-run them.
The entry counts are huge (indicating a date-unbounded join) and the wins/losses are returning as 0. The matches are joining on all-time data. Let me fix the query to properly scope dates and also correctly join match results.
Good — the entry-level wins/losses/draws are stored on the tournament_entries table itself. Let me now build the correct per-copy winrate queries using te.wins and te.losses directly, scoped to the date window.
I now have all the data needed. Note that Utrom Monitor is not yet in the database — it's a very new card and hasn't shown up in logged tournament results yet. Here is the full breakdown:
Hey @swarmofmats.bsky.social! Here's a comprehensive breakdown of Pauper Grixis Affinity from Jan 1 to Mar 5, 2026 (227 entries, 54.7% overall winrate excl. mirrors). Utrom Monitor is NOT yet in the database — it's either too new or hasn't appeared in logged events yet, so no data exists on it. I'll break down every card by copy count.
MAINDECK — Winrate by Copy Count
Archetype core (near-universal):
myr enforcer — 4x: 54.5% (227 entries)
refurbished familiar — 4x: 54.5% (227 entries)
thoughtcast — 4x: 54.4% (220 entries) | 3x: 60.0% (5) | 2x: 0.0% (1, tiny sample)
galvanic blast — 4x: 54.5% (220) | 2x: 62.5% (4, small sample) | 3x: 25.0% (1)
ichor wellspring — 4x: 54.2% (204) | 3x: 65.6% (8, small sample)
makeshift munitions — 1x: 54.8% (218) | 2x: N/A (1 entry)
krark-clan shaman — 3x: 55.1% (206) | 2x: 50.0% (14) | 4x: 66.7% (2, tiny)
nihil spellbomb — 3x: 54.6% (202) | 2x: 55.8% (8) | 4x: 54.3% (11)
Flex slots:
blood fountain — 2x: 54.8% (215) | 3x: 52.8% (7)
cryogen relic — 1x: 54.9% (172) | 2x: 58.5% (21) | 4x: 53.5% (11)
black mage's rod — 3x: 56.0% (168) | 2x: 50.6% (24) | 1x: 40.0% (2) | 4x: 0.0% (1)
fanatical offering — 1x: 54.7% (175) | 2x: 58.7% (15) | 3x: 38.5% (4) | 4x: 28.6% (1)
toxin analysis — 2x: 54.4% (165) | 3x: 59.1% (34) | 1x: 44.4% (6)
hunter's blowgun — 1x: 53.6% (142) — almost always played as a singleton
eviscerator's insight — 1x: 55.4% (25) | 2x: 0.0% (2, very small)
kenku artificer — 1x: 50.7% (22) | 2x: 54.5% (5)
cast down — 2x: 50.0% (19) | 3x: 55.6% (5) | 1x: 20.0% (4, tiny)
metallic rebuke — 1x: 40.0% (21) | 2x: 61.5% (3) | 3x: 44.4% (2)
gearseeker serpent — 4x: 54.8% (10) | 3x: 46.5% (11) | 2x: 75.0% (1) | 1x: 46.7% (3)
SIDEBOARD — Winrate by Copy Count
Sweepers / hate bears:
breath weapon — 1x: 56.2% (141) | 2x: 55.0% (56) — the clear go-to, either 1-2 copies
krark-clan shaman (SB) — 1x: 57.4% (129) — nearly always a 1-of in the side
gorilla shaman — 1x: 54.1% (104) | 2x: 33.3% (2)
fiery cannonade — 1x: 57.9% (5) | 2x: 28.6% (5) — small samples
Blue/Red hate:
hydroblast — 4x: 55.9% (142) | 3x: 53.1% (10) | 2x: 50.8% (17) | 1x: 49.3% (18) — 4x clearly best
pyroblast — 4x: 56.9% (142) | 1x: 47.9% (12) | 2x: 37.1% (9) | 3x: 41.7% (11) — again, 4x best
blue elemental blast — 2x: 60.5% (82) | 4x: 52.8% (62) | 3x: 47.8% (12) | 1x: 46.4% (16) — 2x sweet spot
red elemental blast — 1x: 59.3% (85) | 4x: 53.8% (60) | 2x: 46.2% (7) | 3x: 43.8% (8) — 1x surprisingly strong
Discard / disruption:
extract a confession — 1x: 55.0% (46) | 2x: 51.0% (28) | 3x: 100.0% (1, ignore)
duress — 3x: 55.1% (18) | 2x: 53.4% (20) | 1x: 51.4% (10) | 4x: 33.3% (1)
unexpected fangs — 1x: 55.6% (167) | 2x: 50.0% (13) | 3x: 33.3% (1) — nearly always a 1-of
envelop — 1x: 54.5% (12) | 2x: 44.3% (32) — 1x clearly better
negate — 2x: 54.2% (8) | 1x: 46.5% (44)
dispel — 1x: 56.8% (8) | 4x: 75.0% (2, tiny) — small samples throughout
faerie macabre — 2x: 69.2% (7, small) | 1x: 45.5% (31)
cast down (SB) — 2x: 55.0% (5) | 1x: 45.2% (8)
cast into the fire — 2x: 58.5% (22) | 1x: 50.0% (3) | 3x: 33.3% (1) | 4x: 40.0% (2)
ashes to ashes — 2x: 53.8% (7)
nihil spellbomb (SB) — 1x: 50.0% (11) — mostly redundant given main deck copies
toxin analysis (SB) — 1x: 47.4% (5)
Key takeaways:
The core 60-card shell is remarkably stable. The biggest maindeck flex call is toxin analysis (3x at 59.1% beats 2x at 54.4%), black mage's rod (3x at 56.0% is the sweet spot), and cryogen relic (2x at 58.5% is best, though sample is modest). For the sideboard, blue/red hate should be maxed at 4x if you're running them — both pyroblast and hydroblast show the sharpest winrates at 4 copies. Breath weapon at 1-2 and krark-clan shaman as a 1-of sideboard piece are the most consistent sweeper options. Regarding Utrom Monitor — it hasn't shown up in any logged tournament data yet, so no winrate comparison is possible at this time. Keep an eye out as it's a very new card with affinity synergy that could slot in as a threat with flying in a future iteration of the archetype.
Sources: Data from 109 tournaments (Jan 1 – Mar 5, 2026): 37.6% MTGO, 35.8% Melee, 26.6% Cardsrealm.
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/pauper-challenge-32-2026-03-0112834091
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/14a34ef7-f1b7-49c5-94f4-b3ff00e0b068
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/pauper-challenge-32-2026-02-2812834072