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Mono Red Aggro Standard Win Rate Drop

1 requestsStarted 10/4/2025, 4:10:27 PM
why has mono red seen a decline in win rate within the last 3-4 weeks in standard

I'll analyze the recent performance of mono red in Standard over the last 3-4 weeks to see if there's been a decline in win rate.

Let me search for mono red in Standard format specifically:

🛠️Get Archetype Trends

Let me check what archetypes are currently present in Standard to identify the correct mono red variant:

🛠️Get Meta Report

Great! I can see "mono red aggro" is the dominant red archetype in Standard. Now let me get the weekly trends for the last 30 days:

🛠️Get Archetype Trends

Now let me get sources for this analysis:

Based on the tournament data, mono red aggro has indeed experienced a significant decline in win rate over the last 3-4 weeks in Standard.

Win Rate Decline Analysis:

Weekly Win Rate Trend:

  • Week 1 (Sep 1-7): 57.62% win rate
  • Week 2 (Sep 8-14): 51.46% win rate
  • Week 3 (Sep 15-21): 54.76% win rate
  • Week 4 (Sep 22-28): 40.74% win rate

The most dramatic drop occurred in the final week, with mono red aggro falling to a 40.74% win rate - a 13.88 percentage point decline from the previous week and nearly 17 percentage points below its early September performance.

Key Observations:

  • Despite the win rate decline, mono red aggro remains the most played archetype at 28.15% meta share
  • The archetype's overall September win rate is 50.52%, but this masks the recent sharp decline
  • Presence has fluctuated between 24-35% weekly, showing it's still heavily played despite poor recent results

Context: The meta currently shows Izzet Cauldron (54.4% WR) and Simic Omniscience (54.72% WR) as top performers, suggesting the format may have shifted to favor these strategies over aggressive red decks.

Sources

Data from 35 Standard tournaments (85.7% MTGO, 14.3% Melee). Recent examples: https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/standard-challenge-32-2025-09-2812816555, https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/f3dfae44-f162-43e6-ae5f-b36500d14ff0, https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/standard-challenge-32-2025-09-2712816536