← Back to Sessions

Modern Deck Variants Winrate Comparison April June

1 requestsStarted 6/18/2026, 2:42:35 PM
Bluesky mention by @Foxantes: @_MetaMage_ Give me winrate vs top modern decks of the following archetypes: - UW Blink with MD Springleaf Drum - UW Blink with MD White Orchid Phantom - Broodscale with MD Writhing Chrysalis - Broodscale with MD Sowing Mycospawn Please answer the question based on MTG tournament data. The full thread JSON is available but omitted here.

I'll need to gather several pieces of data simultaneously. Let me start by resolving all the archetypes and cards needed.

🛠️Get Meta Report

UW Blink wasn't found. Let me search for it under likely names, and simultaneously fetch the top archetype IDs for matchup queries. Let me also look for UW Blink under alternative names.

Good, I have all archetype IDs. Now I need to identify which entries have each card in the mainboard for Azorius Blink and Broodscale, then compute their matchup winrates vs the top decks. Let me run the database queries for all 4 card-based splits simultaneously.

🛠️QueryArchetype Entries With Card in Date Range
🛠️QueryTournament entries with archetype and card in date range
🛠️QueryArchetype deck entries with specific card in date range
🛠️QueryArchetype entries with specific card in date range

Now I have entry IDs for all 4 splits. Let me run the matchup winrate queries for all 4 variants vs all top decks simultaneously. I'll do matchup queries combining entry IDs with opponent archetype IDs.

🛠️QuerySpringleaf Drum matchup winrates against top archetypes
🛠️QueryWhite Orchid Phantom matchup winrates against top archetypes
🛠️QueryChrysalis deck matchup winrates against top archetypes
🛠️QueryMycospawn Sowing Matchup Winrates Against Top Archetypes

The CTE queries were blocked due to comments before SELECT. Let me also get the prowess archetype ID and rewrite the queries cleanly.

🛠️QueryTournament entries with archetype and card in date range

Now I have all the archetype IDs. Let me run the matchup queries properly — the issue was inline comments. I'll use clean SQL with IN lists of entry IDs directly.

🛠️Query
🛠️QueryMatchup Winrate Against Opponent Archetypes
🛠️QueryWinrate Against Opponent Archetypes

The matches table returns zeros — the join on opponent archetype must be filtering out all rows. Let me check the matches table structure to understand how results are stored, and also check how matches link to entries.

🛠️QueryAll matches for specific entry
🛠️QueryMatch history for specific entry

The result values are 'WIN'/'LOSS'/'DRAW' not 'W'/'L'/'D'. Let me now run all 4 matchup queries with the correct result values using subqueries instead of CTEs.

🛠️QueryMatchup Winrate Against Opponent Archetypes
🛠️QueryMatchup Winrates Against Opponent Archetypes
🛠️QueryMatchup Winrate Against Opponent Archetypes
🛠️QueryMatchup winrates against opponent archetypes

I have all the data. Now let me get sources for citation.

All data collected. Here is the full breakdown:


NOTE ON SAMPLE SIZES: The Springleaf Drum UW Blink split has only 10 entries (vs 38 for White Orchid Phantom), so treat those numbers with caution. Broodscale splits are much more robust: 77 entries with Writhing Chrysalis vs 37 with Sowing Mycospawn. All data covers April 15 – June 15, 2026, excluding mirror matches.


UW BLINK WITH MD SPRINGLEAF DRUM (10 entries)

vs Affinity: 3-1, 75.0%
vs Amulet Titan: 2-0, 100.0%
vs Boros Energy: 1-1, 50.0%
vs Broodscale: 0-1, 0.0%
vs Goryo Reanimator: 1-2, 33.3%
vs Prowess: 0-1, 0.0%


UW BLINK WITH MD WHITE ORCHID PHANTOM (38 entries)

vs Affinity: 4-5, 44.4%
vs Amulet Titan: 3-2, 60.0%
vs Boros Energy: 5-6, 45.5%
vs Broodscale: 4-4, 50.0%
vs Goryo Reanimator: 5-6+1D, 45.5%
vs Prowess: 6-2, 75.0%


BROODSCALE WITH MD WRITHING CHRYSALIS (77 entries)

vs Affinity: 19-4+1D, 82.6%
vs Amulet Titan: 3-5, 37.5%
vs Azorius Blink: 4-3, 57.1%
vs Boros Energy: 21-18+1D, 53.8%
vs Goryo Reanimator: 8-10+1D, 44.4%
vs Prowess: 9-12, 42.9%


BROODSCALE WITH MD SOWING MYCOSPAWN (37 entries)

vs Affinity: 10-5, 66.7%
vs Amulet Titan: 3-5+1D, 37.5%
vs Boros Energy: 6-11, 35.3%
vs Goryo Reanimator: 5-8, 38.5%
vs Prowess: 5-5, 50.0%

(Note: no recorded matches vs Azorius Blink in the Sowing Mycospawn sample.)


A few highlights worth noting. Writhing Chrysalis Broodscale dominates Affinity at 82.6% and is a solid favorite into Boros Energy at 53.8%, making it the better-positioned Broodscale build against the two most-played decks in the format. Sowing Mycospawn versions look meaningfully worse into Boros Energy (35.3%) and Goryo Reanimator (38.5%), suggesting the Mycospawn slot costs equity in fair-matchup attrition. On the UW Blink side, the Orchid Phantom build has a much larger sample and shows a clean edge vs Prowess (75%), but the Springleaf Drum split is too small (10 entries) to draw firm conclusions — the 100% vs Titan and 0% vs Broodscale/Prowess are single-match data points.


Sources: Data from 148 Modern tournaments (Apr 15 – Jun 15, 2026), 62% MTGO / 38% Melee.
https://www.mtgo.com/decklist/modern-challenge-32-2026-06-1412844334
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/37dec019-e43b-4b11-8328-b468012d8da4
https://melee.gg/Decklist/View/e1440222-597d-4431-be3e-b46901393eb5